Fuel prices for end users in Russia continue to rise against the backdrop of intensified Ukrainian strikes against Russian oil infrastructure, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) states in its latest analysis, News.bg reports.
According to data cited by the "Interfax" agency, in June 2026 the price of AI-92 gasoline increased by 7.3%, AI-95 - by 6.7%, AI-98 - by 3.1%, and diesel fuel became more expensive by 7.1%.
ISW believes that the long-range Ukrainian strikes against Russian refineries and Attacks on logistical routes for fuel supplies to the occupied territories are among the main reasons for the price increase. Analysts note that this coincides with the traditionally higher demand for fuel during the summer tourist season.
According to the institute, gasoline shortages are already being reported in at least 78 of Russia's 83 federal subjects, as well as in the occupied Ukrainian territories. According to ISW, Ukrainian attacks are likely to continue to intensify until Moscow manages to overcome weaknesses in its air defenses. This could further complicate both civilian fuel supplies and military logistics in the immediate rear and on the front line.
The analysis also indicates that recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian fuel tankers in the Sea of Azov have forced Russia to restrict some sea routes.
Data from Starboard Maritime Intelligence shows a possible 55% drop in the number of ships with activated Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders in the Sea of Azov between June 30 and July 11. According to ISW, this could mean a change in the behavior of Russian ships in order to reduce the risk of new Ukrainian attacks.
In a separate part of the analysis, the Institute for the Study of War also draws attention to information about an alleged Russian cyber operation against NATO countries and Ukraine.
The British newspaper The Telegraph reported on July 10, citing the Dutch General Intelligence and Security Service and the Military Intelligence and Security Service, that hackers linked to the Kremlin had penetrated civilian CCTV cameras to monitor the routes for transporting military equipment to Ukraine.
According to the Dutch services, the operation was aimed at European NATO member states, including the Netherlands, as well as Ukraine. According to the publication, the hackers probably gained access to CCTV systems and intercoms to monitor the movement of military supplies and collect information about the weapons being sent.