According to Russian sources, the explosion on August 1 in a restaurant in central Moscow may have been an attempt to eliminate the commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS), Colonel General Alexander Chaiko. There is currently no official confirmation whether Chaiko was killed or injured.
This is according to the "Institute for the Study of War" (ISW).
Russian authorities reported that the explosion killed a woman, who they believe was carrying the explosive device, as well as a security guard and a restaurant customer. Initially, 21 people were reported injured, but Russian sources later said two of them died in hospital, bringing the death toll to five.
People close to the authorities claim that Chaiko was among those attending a private event to celebrate his 55th birthday, which was also linked to his appointment as commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces in May. According to Russian sources, his daughter Maria, who was also likely present, may have been among the injured. The Kommersant newspaper reported that the event was well-guarded and that officers from the Federal Security Service were present, but they were off-duty. Another Russian source claimed that the guests included high-ranking FSB officials, civil servants, State Duma deputies, and generals from the Ministry of Defense.
Chaiko's condition is still unknown. He has many years of experience in Russian operations in Syria and Ukraine. He commanded the Eastern Military District from February to May 2022 and led Russian forces in the failed attempt to encircle Kiev. Chaiko also commanded Russian units that committed violence against civilians in the Kiev region, including in Bucha. In December 2024, he was reappointed commander of the Russian group in Syria, and in May 2026, he took over the Aerospace Forces.
The Aerospace Forces play a key role in Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions.
Meanwhile, Russia has updated its arsenal with "Banderol" cruise missiles and "Geran-4 Seeker" drones, which are based on the "Shahed" series, with the aim of using them against Ukraine's port and railway infrastructure.
Ukrainian Commissioner for Sanctions Policy Vladislav Vlasyuk told Bloomberg on July 31 that 80% of recent Russian strikes on ports around Odessa have involved "Banderol" missiles, which carry 150 kg warheads and can outrun Ukrainian interceptor drones. Taking advantage of the range of these missiles of several hundred kilometers, Russia has been launching them at Odessa from occupied Crimea.
The Ukrainian specialized website Militarniy reported that the "Geran-4" drones now also have a new guidance system, and are supposedly equipped with Chinese wide-angle cameras with a 180-degree view. According to a Russian military blogger, these drones are mainly used against Ukrainian rail transport, targeting locomotives in border and frontline areas. The most damaged rail trains in the second half of July were reported in the Dnepropetrovsk region.
Two and a half months after the start of the spring-summer offensive, the Russian advance on the front remains slow. According to ISW, Russian forces captured 37.85 sq km in July; an average of 1.22 sq km per day. The total expansion of the Russian presence reaches about 121.56 sq km — significantly less than the 455.74 sq km that were captured last year at this time.
Russia has intensified its offensive towards Konstantinovka in Donetsk region, but without managing to capture the city or reach higher priority objectives. Ukraine's counterattacks, medium-range strikes on Russia, and the superiority of Ukrainian drones are limiting the Russian offensive and the ability to use armored vehicles, and there are currently no signs that Moscow is able to sharply accelerate its pace.