Russian troops continue to slowly advance in Donbas, and the Ukrainian military is preparing for heavy fighting for the last major defensive lines in the region. Experts warn: the situation for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in some areas of the front is deteriorating, but the pace of the Russian offensive remains extremely low, Focus reports.
As Business Insider writes, according to estimates by representatives of one of the leading European intelligence services, the Russians may reach the vicinity of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk in early 2027. These cities are the center of the last major Ukrainian defense belt in Donbas.
At the same time, intelligence officers believe that Russia may completely seize Donbas as early as next year. However, such an offensive will cost the Russian army huge losses.
At the same time, not all experts consider this scenario inevitable, the media outlet notes. For example, military analyst Franz-Stefan Gadi points out that Russian troops are currently advancing at the slowest pace since winter. According to him, at the current pace of the offensive, Moscow will not be able to completely capture Donbass until the early 2030s.
At the same time, the expert warns that the slowdown in the offensive does not mean stabilization of the front. In some areas, the Russians have a local advantage, in particular in the use of FPV drones. In some areas, the ratio of drones to air power can reach 10 to 1.
An additional problem for the Ukrainian troops remains Russian guided bombs, which inflict significant losses on the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Gadi suggests that the Russians could reach Kramatorsk and Slavyansk as early as the spring or summer of 2027. However, according to him, for this purpose, the Kremlin may need a new mobilization:
"Russia needs mobilization if it wants to maintain or increase the current pace“.
According to him, if the mobilization takes place in the fall, the new military will be able to have a significant impact on the situation on the front approximately in the first half of 2027.
Colonel of the Austrian Armed Forces Markus Reisner believes that Russia's summer offensive for now has not met the Kremlin's expectations, but the Russian army continues to advance "slowly but inexorably".
According to him, one of the key factors in the upcoming battle for Kramatorsk and Slavyansk will be Ukrainian logistics. If the Russians manage to cut off the supply routes of the Ukrainian troops, they will be able to hold their positions for only a limited period of time.