The war between Russia and Ukraine is entering a decisive phase. Ukraine has proven that it can quickly adapt and develop effective technologies. Meanwhile, Russia is counting on Ukraine's exhaustion and the weakening of the West, reports News.bg.
As former CIA director David Petraeus wrote in an article for “The Washington Post“, the outcome of the war will depend on which side is faster in turning innovations into mass production and a lasting military advantage.
Petraeus notes that Ukraine's key advantage throughout much of the war was its ability to learn quickly. He points out that Ukrainian soldiers, engineers, intelligence officers and defense companies are able to identify problems, develop solutions, test them in combat conditions and modify them with impressive speed.
However, the former CIA director emphasizes that adaptation is truly complete only when improvements reach the front lines quickly enough - and on a sufficient scale - to change the balance of power on the battlefield. This, he notes, is increasingly becoming the essence of the conflict.
Petraeus acknowledges that Russia has improved its capabilities while increasing military production. However, Ukraine is trying not to lag behind.
Ukraine relies on technological advantage
According to the former CIA director, Ukraine's strategy for victory begins with preventing significant Russian territorial gains. He points out that skillful ground operations - combined with the use of drones, precision strikes, combat management systems and air defenses - have repeatedly stopped the Russian offensive.
Petraeus emphasizes that Russia seems unable to compensate for its losses through the current system of military service under contract. This, he says, explains Moscow's preparations for a new stage of mobilization.
The Ukrainian military understands that simply holding the front line is not enough. Petraeus notes that this realization has prompted Ukraine to increasingly launch long-range strikes on oil refineries, logistics centers and ammunition depots on Russian territory.
In addition, the former CIA director emphasizes that isolating the occupied Crimea is another key element of this campaign, given the military and symbolic importance of the peninsula. According to him, Ukraine is turning what Russian President Vladimir Putin considers the “pearl” of its conquests, in burden.
“The effect is cumulative. Every damaged oil refinery or destroyed air defense system creates costs that Russia is forced to either cover or circumvent. Every retaliatory move in turn creates a new potential target“, Petraeus writes.
Ukraine's Financial Vulnerability
The former CIA director notes that Ukraine faces serious financial vulnerability. Government estimates put the defense funding gap at $27 billion.
He noted that this was essential because the scale ultimately represented both a financial and technological challenge.
Petraeus pointed out that while Ukraine could develop an effective interceptor missile or a long-range drone, it would only achieve a battlefield advantage when those systems could be produced, improved, and replaced in thousands.
This, he noted, turned the war into a race between two theories of victory.
What could help Ukraine defeat Russia
The former CIA director stressed that Russia was betting on Ukraine’s manpower, air defenses, infrastructure, finances, and Western support being depleted before its own resources were exhausted. run out.
Ukraine, meanwhile, is betting that it can prevent Russia from making decisive gains while inflicting military, economic and political losses on it.
“Neither of these outcomes is a foregone conclusion. Ukraine does not need to take Moscow. It must demonstrate that Russia cannot advance at an acceptable cost, that Ukrainian military and economic pressure can be maintained, and that Western support will continue. Kiev's European partners can help ensure the latter by treating the country's defense-industrial base as an extension of their own,“ Petraeus added.
According to the former CIA director, increased economic pressure should support Ukraine's war effort by limiting energy revenues and disrupting the international networks that finance Putin's war.
Petraeus believes that the "hell" sanctions bill against Russia, proposed by the late Senator Lindsey Graham, would help achieve this goal.
“The goal is not to punish the Russian people, but to change Putin's calculations. Serious negotiations will become possible when he comes to the conclusion that another year of war will weaken Russia rather than strengthen it. He doesn't have to admit defeat: he could hold on to the occupied territories, claim that Russia has defended the Donbass, and declare victory," Petraeus explained.
The former CIA director concluded that a more meaningful outcome would be a sovereign Ukraine, more closely integrated with Europe, and equipped with the most experienced and capable armed forces on the continent.