German historian and CDU member Andreas Röder believes that Chancellor Friedrich Merz still has a chance to become a politically significant figure in the long term, but only if he shows more decisive leadership and imposes deeper economic and social reforms. Röder said this in an interview with WELT AM SONNTAG published on Sunday.
According to him, Merz is in an “existential crisis“, but it does not necessarily mean the end of his chancellorship. Röder argues that the current pressure could be turned into an opportunity if the government undertakes more substantial changes to the pension system, tax policy, energy and the conditions for economic growth.
The historian is critical of the current coalition between the CDU/CSU and the Social Democrats. According to him, the differences between the two political forces limit the possibilities for large-scale reforms. Röder even suggests that if the reforms are blocked, Merz could consider a minority government with changing parliamentary majorities as an option. This is his political assessment, not a stated intention of the Chancellor or the federal government.
According to Röder, the main problem facing the CDU is broader than Merz's personality. He believes that the party needs to build a clearer political line of its own and focus on reducing labor and energy costs, limiting bureaucracy and stimulating economic growth.
The comments come at a time of strong political pressure on the chancellor. Regional elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania are being held on September 20, which are also being watched as a test of the CDU's position. Reuters notes that Merz is facing internal party criticism after the weakening of support for the ruling party and the strong results of the AfD in recent regional elections.
A recent YouGov survey, published before the vote, shows that 48% of respondents expect Merz to not remain chancellor by the end of the year, while 31% believe he will keep his post. This is a measure of public expectations, not a forecast of the actual development of the political situation.
However, Röder does not believe that changing the chancellor in itself would solve the CDU's problems. According to him, the party faces a strategic choice - to continue with moderate changes or to undertake a more explicit reform policy, even if this increases tensions with coalition partner SPD.