A defeat for the Republican Party in the US midterm elections could increase the likelihood that President Donald Trump will order a large-scale military operation against Iran. This is reported by Axios, citing a US official familiar with the discussions in the administration.
According to the source, Trump may take a more decisive step if the Republicans suffer a heavy loss in the elections. “If he feels humiliated or deprived of support, he will do something bold“, the representative told Axios.
However, the claim has been disputed by the White House. A spokesman for the presidential administration said the election results would not be a factor in Trump's decision on how to approach Iran.
Administration divisions
There are differences within the administration about whether Washington should resume military action or continue diplomatic pressure. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth are skeptical about the possibility of a nuclear deal with the current Iranian regime. According to a US official, both believe that additional strikes would further weaken Tehran.
On the opposite side are Vice President J.D. Vance and Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who support resuming negotiations with Iran.
„There are talks. They want to talk. They continue to talk. "We have time," Trump told reporters on Friday, describing the conflict as "a war, but not a typical war."
Qatari mediators seek path to talks
Qatari mediators have held more than 12 hours of talks in Tehran in an attempt to reach an agreement to resume direct talks between the United States and Iran. The talks are set to continue in Doha.
The United States is demanding that Iran make concessions on its nuclear program before talks can resume. Tehran, for its part, wants Washington to first lift the naval blockade, release frozen funds and allow the sale of Iranian oil.
Qatar has offered Iran access to bombed nuclear sites as a confidence-building measure in exchange for sanctions relief.
Possible post-election strikes
On October 8, Trump said the United States would not attack Iran before the midterm elections on November 3. The Associated Press reported that US officials have warned allies in the Middle East to prepare for possible new strikes after the election, but the president has not yet made a final decision.
According to the Associated Press, the new operation could last several days, and regional countries are preparing for possible Iranian retaliatory strikes on energy facilities and other critical infrastructure. The latest Pentagon estimate provided to Congress puts the cost of the war with Iran at $47.1 billion.
Sources: axios.com, washingtonpost.com