Donald Trump’s political power is weakening after the Democrats’ victories in the US midterm elections, but this does not automatically mean a more cautious foreign policy. On the contrary, the president may become more unpredictable if he senses that he is losing influence and attention.
This is the main conclusion of an analysis by Simon Tisdall, foreign policy commentator for The Guardian. According to him, the election results represent a personal rejection of Trump and have destroyed the perception of his political invincibility. The author also views the vote as a signal of change beyond the US – from Ukraine and Europe to Iran and Israel.
Pressure on Kyiv over a deal with Moscow
Tisdall suggests that Trump’s weakening could paradoxically accelerate a ceasefire in the war between Russia and Ukraine. According to the analysis, Vladimir Putin may prefer an agreement while Trump is still in the White House and has the opportunity to present the deal as a diplomatic success.
The risk for Ukraine, however, remains high. The author warns that US negotiators could increase pressure on Kyiv to make territorial and other concessions, without sufficient security guarantees. Tisdall also suggests that US military and intelligence support could be curtailed if Trump decides to force the Ukrainian leadership to accept his terms.
The analysis notes that Trump views the war as an obstacle to normalising relations with Moscow and to potential energy, investment and trade deals. The author also links this to his idea of a kind of “reverse Nixon” – drawing closer to Russia in order to strategically contain China.
Iran and Israel remain among the flashpoints
According to Tisdall, hopes in Iran for an end to the conflict with Washington may prove premature. If Benjamin Netanyahu remains in power, his pressure on Trump could lead to the resumption or expansion of military operations.
Resolving the longstanding dispute over Iran’s nuclear programme is presented as one of the issues through which Trump wants to leave his mark on history. At the same time, the author expects US support for Israel to continue, including under a possible new government in the country, and predicts that policy towards Gaza and the West Bank will not change significantly until 2028.
Congress will constrain the president
Trump retains significant powers in foreign and defence policy, but after the Democrats take control of both chambers of Congress in January, his administration will face increased scrutiny over executive orders, budgets and alleged abuses of power.
Tisdall suggests that the defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, could also face political consequences. The author does not rule out another impeachment attempt, which would take time away from Trump’s foreign policy initiatives.
In his conclusion, Tisdall quotes rapper Ice-T: “Redemption simply means changing your life and trying to do the right thing”. The author himself, however, considers such a change in Trump unlikely and expects two more years of political clashes, international pressure and the risk of new military adventures.