Top intelligence: Russian services prepare sabotage on European territory

European intelligence services have warned their governments that Russia is preparing violent sabotage across the continent as it engages in permanent conflict with the West, reports the Financial Times.

Russia has already begun to more actively prepare covert bombings, arson and destruction of infrastructure on European territory, directly and through proxies, without worrying about causing casualties among the civilian population, intelligence officials believe.

While Kremlin agents have a long history of such operations — and have carried out sporadic attacks in Europe in recent years — evidence of a more aggressive and concerted effort is mounting, according to estimates from three different European countries shared with the Financial Times.< br />
Intelligence officials are increasingly talking about the threat to encourage vigilance.

"We assess that the risk of state-controlled sabotage has increased significantly," said Thomas Haldenwang, head of Germany's domestic intelligence. Russia now seems comfortable conducting operations on European territory "with a high potential for damage," he said at a security conference organized last month by his agency, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution.

Haldenwang spoke just days after two German citizens of Russian origin were arrested in Bayreuth, Bavaria, for allegedly planning to attack military and logistics sites in Germany on behalf of Russia.

In late April, two men were charged in the UK with setting a fire at a warehouse containing aid shipments to Ukraine. English prosecutors accuse them of working for the Russian government.

Meanwhile, in Sweden, security services are investigating a series of recent rail derailments that they suspect may be an act of state-sponsored sabotage.

Russia tried to destroy Czech railways' signaling systems, the country's transport minister told the FT last month.

In Estonia, the attack on the interior minister's car in February and attacks on journalists were carried out by Russian intelligence, the country's Internal Security Service claimed. France's Ministry of Defense also warned this year of possible sabotage attacks by Russia against military sites.

"The obvious conclusion is that there is a real increase in Russian activity," said Keir Giles, a senior consultant at the research center "Chatham House".

"It is impossible to say whether this is a reflection of the fact that the Russians are spending more, whether they are being more careless and catching them, or whether Western counterintelligence has simply become better at detecting and stopping them," he added. "Whatever it is, it's about a lot of things."

One senior European government official has said that information is being shared through NATO's security services about "clear and convincing Russian malicious activity" that is coordinated and large-scale.

He added that the time had come to "increase awareness and attention" to the threat of Russian violence on European territory.

On Thursday, NATO issued a statement expressing its deep concern about increasing "malicious acts on allied territory" by Russia, citing what the alliance says is a "intensifying campaign... across the Euro-Atlantic area".

Growing concerns about Russia's appetite for inflicting physical damage on its adversaries follow a series of accusations against Russia in relation to disinformation campaigns and hacking attacks.

Germany on Friday vowed consequences for Moscow - in a statement backed by the EU and NATO - over a hacking attack on Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party in 2023.

Meanwhile, a scandal is still raging revealing Russian attempts to co-opt far-right European politicians ahead of the upcoming European elections.

One intelligence official said Moscow's sabotage efforts should not be seen as any different from other operations, saying the increased activity reflected Russia's aim to exert maximum "piecemeal" pressure.

According to him, Putin currently feels "encouraged" and will seek to push lines as hard as possible in Europe, on multiple fronts, whether through disinformation, sabotage or hacking attacks.

The increased aggression on the part of Russian intelligence also reflects the desire of the country's spies to restore their positions after their most serious failure since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

In the weeks since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, more than 600 Russian intelligence officers working in Europe under diplomatic cover have been expelled, severely damaging the Kremlin's continent-wide spy network.

In a recent report, analysts at the UK's Royal Joint Services Institute highlighted the efforts Russia has made to reestablish its presence in Europe, often using proxies. Among them are members of the Russian diaspora, as well as organized criminal groups with whom the Kremlin has long-standing ties.

There was also a key strategic shift, as the so-called "special influence committees" coordinate the Kremlin's intelligence operations by country, bringing together the hitherto fragmented efforts of the country's disjointed security services and other Kremlin players.

As Russia's operations ramp up, security services are on high alert for threats and trying to identify targets they may have missed.

Questions have been raised, for example, about the hitherto unexplained explosion at the BAE Systems munitions plant in Wales, which supplies projectiles used by Ukraine. In October 2014, a Czech weapons depot storing weapons for Kiev was destroyed, it was later revealed that Russian military intelligence agents planted explosives at the site.

On Friday, a massive fire broke out at a plant in Berlin owned by the Diehl arms company, which also supplies arms to Ukraine. More than 160 specialist firefighters have been called in to tackle the blaze and residents across a large swath of the capital's west have been told to keep their windows closed due to possible toxic fumes.

"As always with Russia, it is wise not to look for a single explanation for why it is doing something. It's always a combination of different things going on," added Giles.

"These attacks that we have seen so far are of course intended to cause disruption, but they can also be used for disinformation. And then there's what Russia learns from these attacks if it wants to really immobilize Europe... These are drills."