The Russian president faces a difficult decision – to announce a new wave of mobilization or reduce the intensity of military actions in Ukraine, writes focus.de.
Ukrainian intelligence in the person of Kyrylo Budanov has announced that Russia aims to end the war with victory by the beginning of 2026 at the latest. The Kremlin sees 2025 as a turning point. According to Budanov, failure to secure victory in Ukraine by early 2026 will undermine Russia's ambitions to remain a global superpower for the next 30 years.
Russia expects worsening economic and socio-political conditions by mid-2025, along with increasing difficulties in recruiting personnel for the military. In particular, the army is already experiencing a shortage of personnel and a decrease in the number of volunteers signing contracts themselves.
Budanov also mentioned that the Ukrainian army's Kursk operation, combined with ongoing strikes on Russian territory, have demoralized Russian citizens and undermined the perception of Russia's invincibility.
This puts Putin in a difficult situation. Announcing a large-scale mobilization is something he does not want because it could cause political unrest in the federation to weaken his regime. According to analysts, Putin is unlikely to announce a new mobilization. At the same time, the other option is also not profitable for the Kremlin – reducing the intensity of military attacks in Ukraine.
With its current military capacity, it is impossible for the Russian army to make a decisive breakthrough on the front in Ukraine. Putin has made it clear that he wants the surrender of all of Ukraine, and for that he must mobilize hundreds of thousands of soldiers.
Putin ordered yesterday that Russia's army be increased by 180,000 troops to a total of 1.5 million. Many observers note that the Kremlin is reluctant to mobilize more reservists, fearing internal destabilization similar to what happened in 2022, when hundreds of thousands of Russians fled Russia to avoid being sent into combat.