The phone call was eagerly awaited, especially by people in Ukraine, who hoped that it could bring them at least a little more peace. However, the results are sobering. This is also the assessment of most political experts interviewed by DW after the call between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Small compromises, but no truce
At least it was agreed that bombs would not fall on power plants and oil refineries in Ukraine and Russia for a period of 30 days. The two superpowers also agreed that ... they would play hockey again. This is exactly what became clear from the Kremlin's press release. It states that Trump has offered Russia to cease its attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure for thirty days. Putin has agreed to do so immediately and in turn has demanded a complete cessation of military aid and intelligence activities to Ukraine as an "essential prerequisite" for the start of peace talks.
The Kremlin leader has stated that monitoring a possible 30-day complete ceasefire is associated with "serious risks". Therefore, an agreement has not been reached on this issue. Moscow also announced that Putin has announced a new prisoner exchange - 175 for 175. Ukraine will receive 23 wounded Ukrainian servicemen. The Russian president also assessed that Trump is pursuing the "noble goal" to end the war.
Putin's promises should not be taken seriously
The two presidents discussed the normalization of bilateral relations between Russia and the United States, as well as ideas for joint work in the economy. And after more than two hours of conversation, in which Trump surprisingly supported Putin's idea for the two countries' teams to play hockey, the two ended the conversation. But what did it lead to?
According to political scientist Anton Barbashin from the portal “Riddle Russia“, it is clear: It did not lead to anything concrete. Even the Russian promise not to bomb Ukraine's energy infrastructure “should not be taken seriously“, he says.
“A complete ceasefire was on the agenda. At least that's what the American side was talking about, Ukraine also agreed. Now we see that this goal has been postponed for another time. Yes, the expert also says, the agreement not to fire on energy facilities is a "sign of a certain dialogue" - but nothing more.
Putin's three-point game
“Playing with Donald Trump“ - this is how Russian political scientist Mikhail Komin describes Putin's tactics in this conversation. This tactic consists of three points, according to him. The first is to make small and insignificant compromises. This time the compromise was - Russia refrains from firing on energy facilities. Like Barbashin, Komin does not consider this promise to be particularly serious, besides “the heating season in Ukraine is almost over“.
The second point in Putin's tactics is postponement: “Putin is raising additional obstacles to the negotiations by setting additional conditions for a ceasefire“. The expert cites as examples the demand to limit mobilization in Ukraine and to stop arms supplies from the United States.
The third point is the information that emphasizes the special nature of the relationship between Trump and Putin and, accordingly, the United States and Russia. Information that will become headlines in the American press. “The longest conversation between American presidents since 1991“ and “Players from the US and Russian hockey leagues will compete with each other again“ are examples of this. “This is a purely symbolic act, with which Putin aims to show that he and Trump are solving important issues in world politics, but do not forget to maintain good relations“, Komin emphasizes.
Trump has already recognized the occupied Ukrainian territories as Russian
Political scientist from Vilnius Aleksandra Filipenko also believes that the nature of the Putin-Trump relationship has been in the focus of attention until a particular breakthrough has been made regarding the war. “Although the exchange of prisoners and the release of seriously wounded Ukrainians are important, the conversation did not lead to a truce, as many expected“, she says.
Filipenko believes that Donald Trump is taking a rather pragmatic approach to resolving the Ukrainian issue. “Crimea, Donbass and some other Ukrainian territories are occupied. Trump takes this for granted and clearly does not believe that Ukraine's idealism, expressed in the demand to regain these territories, is possible. The US president has already de facto recognized the occupied Ukrainian lands as Russian territories,“ Filippenko notes.
However, she believes that Trump's praise and flattery of Putin may not translate into real political decisions. The US president has also praised Chinese President Xi Jinping in the past. "His personal attitude does affect relations with other politicians, but it does not seem to affect the actual decision-making process." Trump is not naive. Despite his fascination with strong leaders, he remains sober when it comes to Vladimir Putin, Filipenko concludes.
What does all this mean for Ukraine?
What can be expected in the future? According to Anton Barbashin, practically nothing will change in the coming months. The Russian army will attack, and Ukraine will defend itself. “The ball is largely in the court of Ukraine's European partners. Will they fill the military gaps that the US leaves? Will they increase the supply of weapons?“, he asks.
In all likelihood, Washington will ask the Europeans to limit their aid to Kiev. Barbashin's forecast: “Ukraine does not expect anything good“.
Author: Yuri Resheto