Four Signs Putin Is Preparing for War with NATO

While Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine remains in the spotlight, President Vladimir Putin is quietly preparing the ground for a potential conflict with NATO, reports say, Newsweek reports.

Russia is expanding its troop presence along parts of its Western border, increasing military spending at a record pace and stepping up covert operations against the West.

NATO must "expect the unexpected" and prepare for a Russian attack, Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, head of the alliance's military committee, said in Brussels last January.

Meanwhile, intelligence and military officials have warned in recent weeks that NATO member states should be prepared for a potential conflict with Russia.

The American magazine contacted the Kremlin for comment by email.

Russian military moves

Russia is expanding its military presence along its borders with Finland and Norway in preparation for a potential clash with the military alliance, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.

The Kremlin plans to establish a new army headquarters in the Russian city of Petrozavodsk, about 160 km east of the Finnish border, which will oversee tens of thousands of soldiers over the next few years. Many of these troops will be deployed in the region after the war in Ukraine ends.

At the same time, Russia is increasing its military recruitment and accelerating weapons production.

Russian military experts told the newspaper that the build-up of forces on the Finnish border is likely part of President Vladimir Putin's broader preparations for a possible conflict with NATO.

“When the troops return [from Ukraine], they will be looking across the border at a country they consider an adversary,“ said Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow-based defense think tank. "The logic of the last decade suggests that we are in for some conflict with NATO".

There are indications that Russia is beginning to withhold recently manufactured equipment from being sent to Ukraine and is instead redeploying some personnel to other regions, including the Baltics and Scandinavia, Edward Arnold, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank, told the publication.

"However, this activity is far from a buildup," Arnold said. "Many of the units that would normally be stationed in the north have become combat-ready during the fighting in Ukraine, so this Russian activity is a rebalancing and recapitalization of lost forces. It therefore shows that Russia is already starting to look "beyond Ukraine".

Warnings from German, Lithuanian and Danish intelligence

The German intelligence community is sounding the alarm that Russia's ambitions are extending beyond Ukraine. A report by Germany's Federal Intelligence Service (BND) in March warned that Putin is preparing for a conflict with NATO.

According to the BND's assessment, by 2030 Russia may be fully prepared for “large-scale conventional war”.

"Russia sees itself in a systemic conflict with the West and is ready to realize its imperialist goals through military force, even beyond Ukraine," the report states.

Meanwhile, the Lithuanian intelligence service VSD assessed that while Moscow is not yet ready to launch a full-scale attack on the alliance, it may try to “test NATO" with a limited military operation against one or more member states to assess how seriously the bloc will take its collective defense obligations.

A Russian attack on any NATO country would trigger Article 5 of the alliance's charter, which states that an attack on a member state will be met with a collective response.

The Danish Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS) also warned in February that Russia could be ready to wage a "large-scale war" in Europe within the next five years. While "there is currently no threat of a regular military attack on the Kingdom," it is likely that "the military threat from Russia will increase in the coming years," it said.

Increasing military spending

Russia's military spending is increasing at a record pace, with an expected 2025 costs are expected to reach around 120 billion euros - more than 6% of the country's GDP. For comparison, before the war they were 3.6%.

The Russian army will also increase to 1.5 million servicemen, and the amount of weapons and equipment deployed along the border with NATO is expected to increase by 30-50%, according to the Russian edition of BILD.

According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ “Military Balance” report, published in February, Russia’s military spending has surpassed that of Europe.

Espionage and sabotage

The West has raised alarms about increased Russian military activity near key undersea communications cables. There are growing concerns among NATO members that Putin could target undersea cables and critical infrastructure that are vital to global communications systems.

In one example, a Russian cargo ship was seen hovering over undersea communications cables in the Pacific Ocean for weeks, raising concerns about potential Russian sabotage. Cutting key undersea lines could disrupt communications and disrupt global economies, a move that would serve Russian interests in a future war with NATO.

This month, Russia’s ambassador to the United Kingdom, Andrei Kelin, also refused to deny media reports that Russia was monitoring the country’s nuclear submarines in the seas around Britain.

Russia is waging an escalating and violent campaign of sabotage and subversion against European and American targets in Europe, the Center for Strategic and International Studies said in a report published in March.

The report noted that the number of Russian attacks in Europe nearly tripled between 2023 and 2024, after already quadrupling between 2022 and 2023.

"The data shows that Russia poses a serious threat to the United States and Europe, and that the Russian government, including the President Vladimir Putin, cannot be trusted,” the report said.

How has NATO responded?

As NATO member states express growing concern about Europe’s collective security, U.S. President Donald Trump has called on European countries to significantly increase their defense spending. In March, the European Commission proposed freeing up about 800 billion euros ($867 billion) in funding to be directed toward additional defense spending.

Meanwhile, NATO member Lithuania has fortified a bridge near its border with Russia with anti-tank concrete pyramids known as "dragon teeth". The structures were first used during World War II to block the advance of tanks and mechanized infantry.

This followed a similar announcement by neighboring Latvia.

The Baltic states “are determined to ensure that what happened to Ukraine does not happen to them,” Roger Hilton, a defense researcher at the Slovakia-based think tank GLOBSEC, previously told the magazine.

In March, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte warned Putin of a “devastating” response if Moscow attacked any of the alliance’s members. “If anyone makes the wrong judgment and thinks they can get away with attacking Poland or any other ally, they will be met with the full force of this fierce alliance. Our response will be devastating.” "This should be clear to Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and anyone else who wants to attack us," Rutte said.