US President Donald Trump's statements in recent days have sparked speculation about whether the US will join Israel's military offensive against Iran. On Thursday, the Trump administration said that the final decision will be made within two weeks. One of the journalists at the briefing asked a question that many in the room wanted to ask - the president has repeatedly given two-week deadlines regarding Russia, which he has then not met. How can we be sure he will keep this one?
Trump spokeswoman Caroline Levitt responded evasively, specifying that these are two very different conflicts and once again blaming Joe Biden for the war in Ukraine.
"Trump always chickens out"
There is something deeper behind the journalist's question, ARD explains. It is about the phrase that has become popular on social networks "Trump always chickens out” (from English: Trump always chickens out and gives up) or TACO. The phrase became popular among online users when the American president abandoned the huge tariffs that he imposed on most of the US's trading partners.
According to former national security adviser John Bolton, this pattern of behavior is problematic, especially in the current crisis in Iran. "I think the ayatollahs are just waiting to see if this is going to be another TACO moment. He's waiting for them to do something, and they're waiting for him to do something. If it were up to me, I would have joined the Israeli attack on Iran from the very beginning. And I probably would have done it 20 years ago", Bolton says.
He knows well how Trump reacts in such situations - the national security adviser is leaving the first cabinet of the US president after a year and a half of working for him. "He just doesn't like to make decisions that he can't back down from the next day", Bolton says.
Can a diplomatic solution be sought now
Other experts hope that the two-week deadline given by Trump will open up an opportunity for diplomatic efforts, ARD writes. Laura Holgate, who worked for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), told CNN that she hopes a solution can be found through negotiations. "An attack on the underground nuclear facility in Fordow will only be a delay, it will not be able to completely eliminate Iran's nuclear program. They have the expertise, there is a group of people who know how to work with the materials. They will not just disappear", the expert commented to the American television channel. According to her, without a new deal, the risk of Iran continuing its nuclear program in secret cannot be eliminated.
Representatives of the Democratic Party express hope that the delay in the decision means that Trump will abandon military intervention. After all, he wants a deal, not war, says Jeff Merkley, a member of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee. "He wants to be a mediator and bring peace. But will he not end up going down in history as just another Republican president who caved to pressure and started a war in the Middle East?”, asks Merkley.
There is no definitive answer to the question of what Donald Trump will do now. "If the president sees an opportunity for diplomacy, he will take it”, said his spokeswoman Caroline Levitt. She did not fail to note, however, that Trump is not afraid to show force.
Author: Wolfgang Landmesser (ARD)