After this morning, all scenarios are possible. We can expect escalations, terrorism, coup attempts, energy insecurity - everything has been discussed in recent days in headquarters across Europe, because we are in one of the few periods in modern history in which it is extremely difficult to predict what will come next.
This is what journalist and analyst Ruslan Trad from De Re Militari wrote on Facebook:
The US is not expected to continue its visible and large-scale involvement, especially against the backdrop of extremely low support at home for a war in the Middle East, but the conflict will continue. Compensation for the rise in oil prices was also part of the talks between Netanyahu and Trump, as the US president does not want global uncertainty to be felt on American streets. Israel has a goal that remains unfulfilled - the removal of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and probably other officials. There has already been an attempt to assassinate the Iranian foreign minister and we expect another attempt, probably again on foreign territory. Iranian missiles are increasingly managing to penetrate Israel's air defenses, and cities like Tel Aviv, Beersheba and Haifa already have entire areas in ruins and destruction. The EU is not on the same page with Netanyahu, but I suppose that in today's world these principled positions hardly make sense, when the international security system was already buried with Russia's intervention in Syria immediately after the occupation of Crimea. The doors are wide open, as all residents from Mali to Ukraine to Gaza can attest.
Reactions/actions are awaited from Turkey, the Russian Federation, China.
What we do know is that the operation has been planned for a longer time, and European security services have had evidence of joint US-Israeli exercises to attack Fordow for at least a year. The negotiation process itself, as I have said before in media comments and texts, has never been on the agenda and there would be no real progress, because the main goals of the two camps are opposite: Iran wants to succeed this time with its nuclear program, and Israel - and Netanyahu personally - will not allow it, since for Tel Aviv now is the best time to strike.
In achieving these goals, both sides involve their allies, and thus the conflict has long gone beyond the borders of the Middle East. My colleagues and I have repeatedly described the interconnectedness of conflicts and how important it is to monitor geopolitical and geoeconomic processes, because a war or conflict never remains static and is never fought in a limited way. Unlike Ukraine, where the war has global participation, but is not global, the Middle East always has global consequences, and this is precisely why this region is a vital strategic interest and priority for global powers. What is happening in the trenches in Ukraine is connected to the tunnels in Gaza and the neighborhoods of Damascus, and this dynamic will continue.