A German source told Reuters that Ukrainian officials had warned their German counterparts on August 13 that Ukrainian intelligence assessed that Russian President Vladimir Putin planned to use the Alaska summit to "buy time" ahead of a potential Russian offensive in October or November 2025.
This was stated by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
This report is in line with recent warnings from Ukraine about Russian efforts to prepare for new offensives in the future, although it is still unclear where Russian forces will focus their main efforts in the fall of 2025.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on August 12 that Russia may transfer 15,000 troops to Zaporizhia, 7,000 troops to Pokrovsk, and 5,000 troops to Novopavlovka to step up offensive operations in these areas in the near future.
Russian forces have postponed their initial plan to capture the rest of Donetsk Oblast by August 1 to December 31, 2025, with Russian forces intensified strikes on the city of Kherson in accordance with plans to do so.
Russian forces took advantage of the Alaska summit on August 15 to intensify ongoing offensive operations in certain areas of the theater of operations, such as conducting an infiltration operation near Dobropilya, and to stockpile drones and missiles, which Russian forces used to strike Kiev and inflict heavy casualties on the civilian population on the night of August 27-28.
Reports that Russian forces are still planning an offensive in the fall of 2025 support the ISW's long-term assessment and recent statements by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that the Kremlin's military goals in Ukraine have not changed.
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov delivered a major speech to the Collegium of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MOD) on August 29 and presented up-to-date information on the ten priority areas for the Russian Defense Ministry. Belousov also discussed the progress of Russian forces on the battlefield in Ukraine and exaggerated Russian achievements in recent weeks.
Belousov indicated that the Russian Defense Ministry has changed its priorities, moving from the production of heavy armored vehicles to the production of light vehicles, reflecting Russian battlefield tactics from the winter of 2024-2025.
Belousov said that Russia continues to focus on developing its unmanned systems forces and drone production capacity.
Belousov indicated that the Russian Defense Ministry is expanding its efforts to digitize Russian recruitment, likely as part of a broader effort to increase Russia's administrative capacity to handle recruitment and mobilization processes.
Ukrainian forces continue to strike Russian military facilities and energy infrastructure in Russia and the occupied Ukraine.
Ukraine's ongoing campaign to attack Russian oil infrastructure continues to contribute to Russia's gasoline shortages.
U.S. and Ukrainian officials met in New York on August 29 and reaffirmed Ukraine's readiness for peace talks with Russia, including at the level of heads of state.