The problems in the draft budget for 2026 are deepening, and the risks of revenue non-fulfillment remain high. This is what economist Dimitar Chobanov commented on the framework submitted by the ruling majority.
The budget does not comply with the Public Finance Act.
„Minister Petkova herself admitted that expenses exceed the allowable threshold of 40% of GDP. The project includes 40.8%, even after deducting EU funds. Another problem is the planned structural deficit, which should be up to 1%, but is planned at a level of 3% and more,“ the economist said.
Chobanov emphasized that the main expenditure items - pensions, social payments and salaries in the public sector - continue to grow without clear reforms.
„Once a salary has been raised or a pension has been increased, there is no going back. Expenditure inflation is irreversible and dangerous,“ he warned.
The economist's main criticism is of the revenue side. A jump of nearly 35% in VAT revenues is envisaged - a scenario that, according to him, is “completely unrealistic“.
He recalled that in 2024, VAT revenues were about BGN 3 billion below planned, which is also acknowledged by the Ministry of Finance itself.
„There is no way that these revenues will grow so much in 2026, regardless of control measures, GPS systems, fiscal devices or SUPTO,“ Chobanov emphasized.
The new measures - higher social security contributions, the introduction of SUPTO, higher dividend tax - put business under pressure, the expert also believes.
Chobanov calculated that employers must increase wages by at least 5.5-6%, just to compensate for the higher social security contributions.
“There is no guarantee that this will happen. Some companies are already closing, growth in the private sector is slowing down,“ he said.
According to him, Bulgaria is moving towards doubling its state debt within a few years. By the end of 2028, the debt will reach nearly 40% of GDP.