In the midst of the election campaign, the topic of possible coalitions and constitutional changes is again on the agenda. President Rumen Radev's request for a 2/3 majority in parliament has caused sharp political reactions. What is happening in PP-DB… Political PR expert Diana Damyanova speaks to FACT.
- Ms. Damyanova, we are already in an election campaign. How do you interpret Rumen Radev's request for a 2/3 majority in parliament - political pressure or a strategic move for stability?
- I interpret it as a child's dream, because there is no data that it will happen. And secondly, which is very important - this does not happen anywhere in the world, except in countries with a complete lack of democracy. Coalitions are now very difficult to form all over the world. They are fragile, social networks have made people even more informed. As a result, the choice is much wider. People cannot be exposed only to television screens. As a result, there are very difficult coalitions all over the world. I understand - this is a propaganda move: "give me 2/3". The question is whether Radev will have even half, which I think he will not have - I am talking about 121 deputies. His words are pure propaganda, which is not connected to a very sustainable thesis, because it is obvious that it cannot be done at the moment.
- The request for 2/3 is related to the possibility of making changes to the Constitution. Are we ready for such changes?
- In general, the goal of 2/3 is reasonable, because the Bulgarian Constitution has many changes that need to be made. One of them is the election of the Supreme a judicial council, which we have no reason to hide, that it blocks the further path to some judicial reform. I don't know if you see that the judicial reform in Bulgaria is interpreted at this point only as a change of people. This is something that Kiril Petkov created as an idea, who saw the change as “changing the person“, but “the person, being one of ours or having passed through his integrity verification system, is therefore decent“. The truth is that people are susceptible and there must be a more serious system to control the judicial system. I believe that the people of the judicial system themselves must be included in the judicial reform. I am very much against this howl that is being raised on TV and in all the media, about how terrifying the judicial system is.
In it, perhaps 80-90% are decent people who are simply terrified by the pressure they are under subjected.
If we are talking about changes and a 2/3 majority in parliament, I would make a list of other changes to the Constitution that are urgent, because the Bulgarian Constitution was made at a critical moment, there was no consensus on a number of issues and it is currently not fully adequate to reality. But with or without a change to the Constitution
– 2/3 are necessary. And these 2/3 must be achieved by consensus. And neither one, nor two, nor maybe even three parties will achieve them.
- And how does this move by Radev affect his image as a unifier or as a factor for additional tension?
- For me, this is a purely propaganda move by Radev, after “We continue the change“ requested a majority of 121 deputies. Radev can request to have 404 deputies – this is logical. Propaganda that has no meaning. He wants to suggest, with absolute right, that 2/3 is needed, but I want to suggest to him that he will have to achieve these 2/3 with complex coalitions.
- You mentioned “We continue the change“. Interesting events happened there. After the expulsion of Yavor Bozhankov, can it be said that Assen Vassilev has now consolidated full control over the party?
- From the very beginning, when this party agreement was made, or whatever it is - the PP-DB coalition, it was an aerial dance that was born on the “wings of victory“ based on the participation of people in Radev's official offices. From the very beginning, “Democratic Bulgaria“, with its two parties inside, was slightly subordinate. And this subordination is getting stronger, stronger and stronger. And in my opinion, Assen Vassilev is moving towards becoming the sole leader of this coalition. This cannot be made official, because they are still different parties. They are obliged to sit together, because, you see, whatever results we get - sociology shows that if they split into three parties, as they are, they will not be in parliament. That is why they are in a very difficult situation. On the one hand, they are doomed to live together, on the other hand, they cannot stand each other, on the third hand, Assen Vassilev imposes his will on “Democratic Bulgaria“ and so, they live in misery. And they will wait for Radev to invite them as a minority partner, because Radev will undoubtedly not have enough votes to govern alone.
- We heard Assen Vassilev say that he does not see a coalition between “We continue the change“ and Rumen Radev's project – at least as a request. How do you interpret this?
- There is a great “vice“ here – and it is not new. It appeared after the Tsar, because the coalition became a word that does not inspire much respect. And in Bulgaria, politicians hide who they would eventually enter into a coalition with after the elections. They behave as if the Bulgarian parliament has 685 deputies.
Because we see how “We continue the change“ will have 121 people, Rumen Radev will have 166... So the parliament is expanding quite a bit. (smiles)
And now all the parties at this stage are not saying who they would enter into a coalition with, convinced that the announcements that they would enter into a coalition with so-and-so will harm them. Now, for “We Continue the Change“, entering into a coalition with Radev will not harm them – it will destroy them. This will be the last frontier. Because Radev's project is the only party with which they have not been in a coalition. But I think that the electorate of “We Continue the Change“ will no longer tolerate this. So they are right not to say it. But they are a party that I participated in creating. What happened next is another matter. But they will accept Radev's outstretched hand if he makes such a gesture.
- “Democratic Bulgaria“ what is their position in this coalition? We heard from Assen Vassilev that Yavor Bozhankov had to be kicked out of the lists in order to sign the lists – and that's what happened…
- Assen Vassilev is a man of character. There is a personal element there – he has a dominant character. And secondly, he is really able to say “I will not sign“ and block the appearance in the elections. The DB knows it. And that's why in the end they swallow a lot – and it's funny. First they will get Bozhankov through them, then they promoted him – after all, he went through a procedure to be nominated by structures, I'm talking about “Democratic Bulgaria“. Now the question of Bozhankov's characteristics is another matter, because, with all my sympathy for him – and I have sympathy, but he is a political “bee“. He has been everywhere. In this sense “Democratic Bulgaria“ is the last place he should be, because he is quite a leftist, and “Democratic Bulgaria“ should be a right-wing party. “Democratic Bulgaria“ was right-wing before it submitted to the leftist policies of “Continue the Change“. So in PP-DB we have a dispute of wills – and the will of Assen Vassilev has now won, and will always win in their disputes.
- How do such internal conflicts affect the voters' trust in “Continue the Change“? What signals do they show?
- The political loss in “Continue the Change“ is the loss of Lorer, not the loss of Bojankov, because Lorer is the creator of “Continue the Change“. As they say, in the modern West, every party needs its "Jew". "Continuing the Change" had a good choice in Lorer. Lorer is not only the creator, but also the initiator of everything that happened in "Continuing the Change". When Kiril Petkov and Assen Vassilev defined themselves as caretaker ministers, Lorer and I prepared the campaign. Lorer made an exceptional contribution to everything. Then, for some reason that I will not go into details, he was underestimated by his party. Lorer is the political loss in this situation.
I do not think that "Continuing the Change" and "Democratic Bulgaria" will go beyond their genes - up to their 300,000 people.
This is, as Vezhdi Rashidov said, the “yellow-clad electoral mass“ of Bulgaria. No matter what they do - we saw that the nightmare in Petrohan did not affect them, so it is unlikely that the excommunication of some Bozhankov will affect them.
- The question is how will they reach the 121 deputies they are talking about?
- I will answer you very precisely here - they will not reach it at all. The question is whether they will have 31 deputies. They are reduced to their core and all such turbulences demobilize them and tear them away from their shiny packaging, most likely in favor of Radev.
- And let's move on to something else - Vladislav Goranov is the leader of the GERB list in Varna. A man whom Borisov gave up on three years ago because of his inclusion in the “Magnitsky“ list and said he didn't know him. And now Goranov leads the list. How do you view this?
- I look at this purely professionally as another moment in which Borisov changes his mind on some issue. More precisely - he changes what he says on a given issue, because his opinion is one, and he constantly tries to say what will make him sympathetic at some table. The truth is that specifically in the case of Goranov - his "magnetization" is the result of a lot of information that reached the US from Bulgaria. I don't know how much of it is true or not, but Borisov at this moment is discounting the risk of "Magnitsky" and saying: "I don't care about that, I'll play with it". The result will be very interesting - whether the city will accept it, whether there won't be a hole in the GERB ballot box. We'll find out. And then we'll find out what the attitude of the people from GERB actually is towards the whole "Magnitsky" operation.