For several days, the European model, and now the GFS, have been predicting unfavorable rainfall conditions in the period October 2-4. This is what the forecasters from Meteo Balkans are warning about. The EU model even predicts snowfall in the mountain ranges in our country. If the forecasts hold and come true, we can expect heavy rains, with the amounts in places - mainly in Western Bulgaria and the Rhodope Mountains - exceeding 50-60 l/sq m. Against the backdrop of empty dams and water scarcity in the country, these rainfalls will definitely be welcome, pointed out "Flagman".
Meteo Balkans notes that the European model (EU) has repeatedly returned scenarios with significant rainfall on the Bulgarian Black Sea Coast. The warm Southern Black Sea coast may play an unfavorable role in the formation of deep convection in the region, and the EU model predicts exactly this - a lot of rain and a risk of flooding along the Southern Black Sea coast.
The forecast is from the EU model and is not definitive, the forecasters specify.
Winter in the mountains
If the European model proves accurate and a sufficiently cold air mass penetrates from the northwest, in the mountainous regions with an altitude of about 1000-1200 m, snow will definitely fall in this situation. Even a symbolic snow cover of 5-15 cm is expected, which will depend on the altitude.
Snowfall is unlikely for the Sofia Plain, but in the higher neighborhoods it is not ruled out that it will fall for a short time.
Benefits for agriculture
Rainfall will be favorable for agriculture. In places they will also be accompanied by thunderstorms, mainly in Southeast Bulgaria.