The election campaign has not yet reached its peak, and the political forces are demonstrating a rather cautious behavior.
“The campaign seems not to have yet entered its decisive and most active phase“, said political scientist Dimitar Ganev from the “Trend“ sociological agency on the air of “Good Morning, Europe“ on “Euronews Bulgaria“. According to him, unlike previous elections, this time a strong confrontation between the main opponents is not expected.
The main players are currently realizing that the interest is not related to a very powerful confrontation with the first political force, which in this case is “Progressive Bulgaria“.
Ganev emphasized that “a frontal attack against Radev could rather increase his chances for electoral growth“. That is why, according to him, parties such as GERB and DPS are currently demonstrating a more moderate tone. At the same time, the formation itself avoids direct clashes.
The situation around the BSP remains particularly dynamic, which, according to the latest data, is on the verge of entering parliament. Ganev noted the direct dependence between the BSP and the new political project: “BSP and “Progressive Bulgaria“ are connected vessels“, as a possible strengthening of support for Radev could lead to an additional outflow from the traditional left-wing electorate.
With the BSP, the issue is most complicated in terms of the percentage we received in the latest survey. To a large extent, the BSP and “Progressive Bulgaria“ are connected vessels, because a large part of the support for Radev comes from a large red family that voted for the BSP only 9-10 years ago.
I give an example of the results in 2017, when the BSP's last highest result was. Then they had 950 thousand votes. Of course, part of the large red family preferred Vazrazhdane over the years, We continue the change. Now they recognize Radev as the new entity they can trust.
If Radev were to strengthen, this could take away even more of the BSP's votes. Radev's strengthening will affect voter turnout, and when it rises, the threshold for entering parliament will be higher.
Regarding the future government after the elections, the sociologist did not rule out complex coalition scenarios and even the risk of a new political stalemate. “I do not rule out the possibility that this National Assembly will prove to be ineffectual and will not cope with its main task, namely to elect a government“, he warned.
In this context, the possibility of broad support from over 160 MPs remains open, but will depend on the parties' ability to overcome the accumulated political divisions.
We must not forget that a majority of 121 is a 4-year contract, and 160 is an ad hoc vote. I think that 160 can be found, because the already expired mandate of the Supreme Judicial Council weighs heavily.
I assume that this direction will be taken immediately after the elections. But I think that such a majority of over 160 deputies will be formed only if the National Assembly manages to elect a majority for the cabinet. If this parliament turns out to be short, it seems very unlikely to me.