Fuel prices in Bulgaria continue to rise against the backdrop of international instability and the war in the Middle East. This was stated by the Chairman of the Bulgarian Oil and Gas Association Svetoslav Benchev on bTV.
According to him, the main reason is the sharp increase in the price of crude oil, which has increased by about 65-66% in just one month. This directly affects the final prices of fuels in our country. Gasoline A-95 has increased in price by about 16%, diesel - by 28%, and LPG - by 22%. by 22%.
Benchev emphasized that in addition to the raw material, the prices of finished petroleum products are also increasing significantly. The increase in kerosene is particularly serious - about 250% since the beginning of the conflict, which will probably lead to more expensive airline tickets.
According to him, if the price of “Brent“ oil stays above 115-116 dollars per barrel, a new increase in fuel prices is likely. Currently, prices have not yet reached the levels of the summer of 2022, but the trend is upward.
Even if the conflict ends quickly, a return to lower prices will not happen soon. The reasons are disrupted supplies, destroyed infrastructure and delays in logistics chains. It is expected that it will take at least several months, and probably more than half a year, to stabilize the market.
Regarding possible measures, Benchev pointed out that reducing VAT on fuels would lead to lower final prices, since the tax represents a significant part of them. However, such a measure depends entirely on the decisions of the state and must be well targeted, in accordance with the recommendations of the European Commission.
The industry also reports changes in consumer behavior. At the beginning of the crisis, there was increased refueling, but subsequently people began to buy fuel for a fixed amount, which led to a decrease in the quantities refueled.
The so-called “fuel tourism“ is also observed, especially in border regions, where foreign citizens refuel in Bulgaria because of lower prices. However, this does not create a risk of shortages, but even increases tax revenues.
Regarding the derogation for the import of Russian oil, which expires on April 29, Benchev expressed confidence that a solution will be found to ensure stable supplies and avoid market turmoil.
He warned that a possible escalation in the region, including actions around key oil points, could shoot crude oil prices up to $150-180 per barrel, which would have serious consequences for the global economy.
At the moment, the country has sufficient fuel supplies at least until the end of April, with hopes that supplies will continue uninterrupted beyond that.