The electoral support for Rumen Radev and his formation "Progressive Bulgaria" has become a "tsunami", not just a wave, due to the coincidence of four key motives among voters. This was stated by political scientist Dimitar Ganev in an interview for the program "Why?".
„In general, we can say that there are 4 motives for voters to support a certain political force - they like the leader, a punitive vote against those in power, conformity - following the winner, and choosing the lesser evil. Rumen Radev and "Progressive Bulgaria" met all four“, Ganev pointed out.
“The number one factor that largely created this electoral tsunami was the activation within the last few days. About half a million Bulgarian citizens are deciding who to vote for between Thursday and Sunday“, explained the political scientist in response to the question of why the sociological agencies did not know the results of the vote.
According to him, sociology has a dead end within 4-5 days and in an electoral tsunami there is an overconcentration of these people at the last moment to vote for one political force.
Regarding the voter turnout, Ganev specified that the real participation is higher than the officially reported.
“The real turnout for the country is probably close to 60%. This is nearly 800 thousand people more than voted in the last parliamentary elections“, specified the political scientist.
Ganev also commented on the heavy loss of GERB – they are the second political power, but with a 30% difference compared to the first one.
„This was an unpopular government. It ended with unprecedented protests and the resignation of the government. There was no way you could look like a winner from this situation“, commented Ganev.
According to him, the future of the party will be decided in the local elections in 2027.
„The answer to the question of whether this is the end of GERB will come when we see whether they will maintain their presence in local government“, believes the political scientist.
According to him, the future of the new party „Progressive Bulgaria“ will also depend on the performance in the local elections next year: „This is a new party without an established organizational infrastructure, the personnel challenge will be a colossal effort“.
He also warned that high public expectations will make the government particularly difficult.
According to the political scientist, there is no reason to compare Rumen Radev to the deposed Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orban.
“Orban was generally a political leader in Europe who was a brake on major initiatives of the European Council. Such a thing cannot be expected from Radev“, Ganev announced.