For the first time, GERB will not participate with its own candidate in the presidential elections. According to sociologist Parvan Simeonov, the decision places the party and its leader Boyko Borisov in an entirely new political situation.
„If they participate, they could end up very low. Borisov has fallen into a difficult situation, in which there is practically no good option“, he commented on the air of „Zdravei, Bulgaria“.
„The third option was to nominate a candidate to participate in the race, but in fact to minimize the damage“, the analyst added. According to him, when nominating a party candidate, there is a real risk that he will remain second or even third. Simeonov pointed out that in recent months various sociological surveys have been conducted with potential candidates and run-off scenarios.
According to him, the decision outlines two major centers on the political terrain - – “Progressive Bulgaria“ and PP-DB.
In this configuration, GERB retains the opportunity to position itself between the two blocs and wait for the development of events. “GERB is in a somewhat privileged position - to switch between the two and expect the possible, over the years, normal standard erosion of the government. To make sure that the two blocs balance out and GERB acts as a balancer“, the sociologist commented.
However, Simeonov did not rule out the possibility that Borisov will make a surprising move by the end of the campaign. “GERB has always made surprising moves. Borisov has always had some trump cards. It seems to us that this time there will be none, but let's not rush," he warned.
According to him, for now, the GERB leader has several main messages with which he explains the party's decision. The first is related to the fairness of the vote and the role of machine voting and the Ministry of Interior. The second is aimed at the PP-DB, and the third - to the fact that none of the leading political forces will nominate a purely party candidate. Simeonov, however, believes that these theses do not significantly change the picture.
„Borisov is doing the right thing. He is touring the country, renewing the asset, strengthening, inspiring his young people and waiting for his moment,“ he commented.
The question of where GERB voters will go in the event of a possible runoff between Iliana Yotova and Andrey Gyurov also remains difficult to predict. However, the sociologist referred to surveys conducted in recent months. According to him, in the Yotova - Gyurov scenario, about two-thirds of GERB supporters would hesitate.
“If Yotova and Gyurov come out in a runoff, back in time we have always seen that about two-thirds of GERB voters would hesitate and say – either I will not vote, or I do not support anyone, or I do not know“, Simeonov noted. The remaining one-third of GERB voters, according to him, is divided between the two candidates, but with a certain advantage for Andrey Gyurov.