A serious deficit is looming in 2025, the economist told BNR Mika Zaikova.
Before we worry about 2025, however, we need to look at the performance of 2024, she warned, explaining:
"We have to enter the Eurozone, but it will not be inflation that will trip us up this time, but a 3% deficit will trip us up. There is a great danger that we will exceed this deficit already in 2024.
According to her, according to the tax declarations for the half year, all companies in Bulgaria have a decrease in income, which means a decrease in corporate tax. In addition:
"If you look at the implementation as of September of the main revenues in the budget, you will see that tax revenues have been implemented at 64%. Non-tax revenues are also at 63%.
In the revenue part of Budget 2024, 1.7 billion has been pledged - this should be the second tranche under the PVA, but it will not come, and even if it comes, it will be around BGN 1.3 billion. , the economist emphasized in an interview for the "RadioTochka" program. according to BNR.
She also pointed out what the previous National Assembly had done - "took all the profit from the dividends of the large state-owned companies and put them into a fund for energy stabilization". According to her, this money was spent on handing out kalpak subsidies in businesses to supplement the cost of electricity. "We do not have long-term contracts that would fix an indicative electricity price, so as to guarantee companies some peace of mind,", commented Mika Zaikova.
She also warned that there is a huge collapse in foreign direct investment:
"If in 2020 they were 30% of GDP, now there is not even 1%. Foreign investors do not want to come to a country where there are no reforms, where they are not sure about their money, a country where it is not known, if it has to go to court, who will solve the problem. We have a very bad image and a very bad business climate.
"I am afraid that as early as 2024 we may exceed this 3% deficit,", the economist repeated again and emphasized that such a deficit leads to an increase in debt and interest payments.
To expect a reaction from a caretaker government is a cause perduta, believes Mika Zaikova. According to her, there should be a regular government after the elections with a horizon of 4 years to fix the legislation, carry out reforms and bear political responsibility. We need reforms in all areas, she was categorical. According to her, there should be an increase in income, but only against reforms and a stable judiciary.
"The very fact that people have already given up voting shows that tensions are brewing. It can appear anywhere," she warned.
Mika Zaikova urged politicians not to start with freezing pensions. She recalled that from July 1, pensions were increased by 11%, with the minimum pension in Bulgaria from BGN 580 to BGN 633. However, the poverty threshold will now be BGN 638, i.e. the minimum pension for full service is lower than the poverty threshold, the economist commented with regret and compared the situation with that in Europe:
"When we talk about pensions, we should be guided by what is the replacement income that gives the pension to what a person received before. The replacement income in Europe - in Denmark it is 93%, in the Netherlands it is 80%, and in Bulgaria it is between 50 and 65%. Throughout Western Europe, the replacement income of the basic pension is relative to the average wage in these countries, and here it is relative to the income that a person used to receive.