The European Commission accepted a preliminary assessment of Bulgaria's request for the second payment under the National Plan for recovery and resilience. The EC found that at this stage eight key milestones and one target have not been satisfactorily met. In case of non-fulfilment of key milestones and goals, the EC may propose a partial or complete suspension of payments.
„At the moment we are not losing this money forever, but it appears that this situation means that there is a good chance that we will indeed lose it. The second payment will indeed be delayed in time even more. Even if there is a functioning parliament, there are many questions on the subject and no agreement. Requests were made that a renegotiation procedure would be carried out, but no one renegotiated anything, commented in the studio of "Hello, Bulgaria". financier Vladimir Sirkarov.
„Bulgaria has 1 month to respond to the EC's impressions regarding the procedure. In the end, the EC will decide whether to have a full waiver of the payment or a partial payment. In terms of the budget, the amount is of the order of 0.5% to the deficit – at 6.2 billion BGN deficit, 4 billion BGN are real as of October 31. The current budget was based on inflation of 4.8%, and this year's forecast is 2.5%, meaning there is some buffer. On November 15, the EC came out with a positive forecast, so we have slightly lower than expected economic growth and much lower inflation. In terms of not only capital expenditures, but also for the maintenance of departments, there is also a certain buffer to keep the budget within the limits of the bearable”, explained the economic adviser at the Bulgarian Chamber of Commerce Shteryo Nozharov.
According to Sirkarov, from the point of view of the tension in the line of public finances, we are already in a fiscal crisis. “Certainly, the tension from the political situation will also have an economic impact. At the end of next year, there is a danger of falling into an excessive deficit – above 3%, given that there is no political will to say what the budget framework will be such that it will be within 3%, he also said.
According to Nozharov, the moderate recovery of the EU economy will also restore exports from Bulgaria.
„Decreasing inflation is a risk for the budget”, Sirkarov said.