The parliamentary elections in Israel ended without a majority, a real challenge for the camp of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and that of his rival Gadi Eisenkot, who must expand their blocs.
Agence France-Presse analyzes the options for securing the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority ahead of Netanyahu (with 53 MPs in his camp) and Eisenkot (with 48 in his).
For the time being, the two seem to be in the best position to head a government, although President Yitzhak Herzog may appoint someone else to try to form a cabinet cabinet.
First option: A government led by Netanyahu
The camp of the prime minister and his allies from the far right and ultra-Orthodox circles comes out on top in the elections with 53 seats in parliament (of which 27 for Netanyahu's "Likud" party).
If he wants to continue governing, Benjamin Netanyahu, who has already united everyone to his right, has no choice but to reach out to the opposition.
However, the obstacles to such a government of national unity are significant, since the four parties of the "change bloc", headed by Eisenkot, have presented these elections as a referendum against Netanyahu.
Among them, Yair Golan's left (8 seats) seems the least inclined to join the current Prime Minister.
On the other hand, for former Minister Avigdor Lieberman (7 seats), a former close associate of the Prime Minister, from whom he distances himself, "the only possible coalition is made up exclusively of Zionist parties, including "Likud", but without Netanyahu.
The case of the center-right party "Together" (12 seats) is more unclear: its leader Naftali Bennett, who briefly held the post of Prime Minister, first made it clear that he would not oppose an alliance with Benjamin Netanyahu's camp under certain conditions. However, it was later withdrawn under the influence of criticism.
Finally, at times, an alliance with Gadi Eisenkot's party (21 seats) through a power-sharing agreement, providing for a rotation of the prime minister's post, was discussed, but this option seems difficult to implement.
Second option: A government led by Eisenkot
Gadi Eisenkot has two main options for governing: a minority government supported in the Knesset by other parties, or a coalition government with Netanyahu, as mentioned above.
In the minority government option, the two party lists of the Arab population, which took on the role of a crucial political balancer with their unprecedented result, stated that they were ready to work with him.
In addition to the fierce opposition of Bennett and Lieberman to such a partnership, a minority government would be unstable and at the mercy of these new allies.
As a former army chief, Eisenkot, who is not a pacifist, could suffer from such allies in the event of deadly military operations in Gaza, for example.
A national unity government headed by him remains the option.
Yair Lapid, one of the bloc's leaders and architect of a broad, if short-lived, coalition in 2021 (including an Arab party, which is a precedent), today urged voters to be "patient" while his camp tries to form a majority. "It will be difficult", he said.
The least likely scenario for unification is one in which Benjamin Netanyahu agrees to step down. Breakaway of Likud MKs is also unlikely, as the party appears firmly under the prime minister's control.
Another possibility would be to include the moderate Islamist list "Raam" (8 seats) in the coalition, although Eisenkot said during the campaign that he would not do so.
However, Eisenkot may be able to convince his current partners to accept the idea, given the reputation of the "Raam" leader Mansur Abbas, who was part of Yair Lapid's short-lived government in 2021, and whose number 2 on the list is a former senior Jewish police officer.
However, there are still a few seats missing to reach the coveted 61. Gadi Eisenkot could try to win them from the ultra-Orthodox groups, which are currently allies of Benjamin Netanyahu, at the cost of concessions from one side or the other on the very sensitive issue of their exemption from military service.
Translated from French: Alexei Margoevsky, BTA