Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure have damaged ports and processing facilities, but have not significantly reduced oil exports or Moscow's revenues.
The rise in global oil prices caused by the US-Iran war has partially offset the impact of the attacks, The Wall Street Journal writes.
In recent weeks, drones have repeatedly attacked Russian oil facilities, including the Tuapse terminal on the Black Sea. According to Russian media, this is the fourth such attack since mid-April. Videos of fires and thick smoke have spread on social media, and local residents have complained of so-called “black rain“ with a layer of oil.
Ukraine also reported strikes on energy facilities in Perm, including a Transneft pumping station. President Volodymyr Zelensky called the attacks “long-term sanctions,” the report said.
Despite the spectacular destruction, port operations are often restored within days. As noted by Ronald Smith, founder of the consulting firm Emerging Markets Oil & Gas Consulting Partners, such attacks appear large-scale but do not lead to long-term disruptions.
Since late March, attacks have hit the key export ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea, as well as Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, through which a significant part of Russia's seaborne oil exports pass.
“These are no longer point attacks“, noted Nick Coleman, an analyst at London-based consultancy Prism Strategic Intelligence.
At the same time, the decline in supplies from the Baltic and Black Seas is being offset by increased supplies through ports in the Arctic and Pacific Oceans. In April, total Russian oil exports by sea amounted to approximately 3.5 million barrels per day, which is almost unchanged from March and 2% higher than last year.
According to Smith, the attacks nevertheless limited the potential growth of exports:
“While volumes have not decreased as much as one might have expected, they have not increased either.“
The most significant decline was recorded in the petroleum products segment: fuel oil exports fell by 34% in April, and diesel fuel by 12%.
Rising oil prices have become an additional factor supporting the Russian economy. Since the Iran conflict erupted, the price of Brent crude has approached $110 a barrel.
According to the International Energy Agency, Russia's revenues from oil and petroleum products reached $19 billion in March - almost double the February figure.
However, analysts note that high prices will require prolonged market pressure to have a significant effect.
“This could be a turning point if prices continue to rise or the situation drags on,“ said Janis Kluge, a researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP).