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ISW: Orbán undermines EU military support efforts for Ukraine by offering peace talks

"The calls by Orbán and others for talks and the Ukraine peace formula are different efforts with different goals, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown he is not interested in either negotiated agreement other than the surrender of Ukraine," analysts say

Jul 7, 2024 08:15 134

ISW: Orbán undermines EU military support efforts for Ukraine by offering peace talks  - 1

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán continues to emerge as a potential mediator to end the war in Ukraine, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's refusal to mediate or hold serious talks .

According to a report by the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Orbán is probably trying to redirect the West's attention to possible peace talks in order to undermine European support for Ukraine, reports news.bg.
"Orbán's efforts to encourage talks are likely part of his ongoing effort to shift European attention to discussing peace talks and away from discussing military support for Ukraine.

Orbán has consistently opposed and undermined EU efforts to provide military aid to Ukraine, and Europe's shift in focus away from military aid supports this broader goal now that Hungary has taken over the EU Council presidency. ISW analysts write.

The analysis also mentions that on July 5, Bulgarian Prime Minister Dimitar Glavchev proposed that Bulgaria mediate in the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. Additionally, on July 6, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan also called on Ukraine to expand and accelerate the ongoing peace process to prevent "deepening polarization" and to "make diplomacy a priority".

"The calls by Orban and others for talks and the Ukraine peace formula are different efforts with different goals, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown he is not interested in any negotiated settlement other than Ukraine's capitulation." analysts think.

At the same time, ISW stresses, Ukraine's ability to continue its own peace process depends on its ability to liberate operationally significant territory.
At the same time, Ukraine will not be able to take successful counteroffensive actions in support of this goal without military support from the West in the short and medium term, ISW notes.

On July 2, Orbán visited Kyiv for the first time in 12 years and met with President Volodymyr Zelensky. During the meeting, Orban called on Ukraine to cease fire.
On Friday, July 5, Orbán flew to Moscow to meet Russian ruler Vladimir Putin as part of a so-called "peace mission".

The visit caused a sharp wave of criticism in Europe. For example, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kalas is convinced that Orbán is using his presidency of the EU to sow trouble.
Bundestag MP Michael Roth called on Hungary to withdraw from the EU presidency. The White House also condemned Orbán's visit, saying his statement would do nothing to end the war.