The war in Ukraine is taking more and more victims. Volodymyr Zelensky wants to convince the West with his “plan for victory” to continue its support, but in reality Ukraine needs something much more ambitious: an urgent change of course, writes focus.de, citing The Economist.
If Ukraine and its Western backers want to win, they must first have the courage to admit they are losing. For the past two years, Moscow and Kyiv have been fighting a costly war of attrition. This is intolerable.
When Zelensky traveled to America a few days ago to meet with President Joe Biden, he brought with him a “plan for victory”, which everyone expected to include a renewed call for arms and money, but in reality Ukraine needs of something much more ambitious: an urgent change of course.
Russia's progress in the eastern part of the country, especially around the city of Pokrovsk, shows how difficult a situation Ukraine is in. Russia is losing a lot of soldiers, but so is Kiev. Ukrainian lines may crumble before Russia's military effort is exhausted.
In addition, Ukraine also has to fight outside the battlefield. Russia has already destroyed so much of the power grid that Ukrainians face daily blackouts of up to 4 p.m. during the freezing winter. People are tired of war.
The army is struggling to mobilize and train enough soldiers to hold the front lines, let alone take back all the occupied territory – this seems impossible at the moment. The gap between the total victory that many Ukrainians aspire to and their willingness or ability to fight for it is widening.
If Zelensky continues to defy reality, he alienates supporters and divides Ukrainians
Fatigue is also spreading abroad. The hard right in Germany and France claims that support for Ukraine is a waste of money. Donald Trump may soon become the President of the United States again. Trump is capable of anything, but his words already suggest that he wants to hand over Ukraine to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
If Zelensky continues to defy reality by insisting that the Ukrainian military can take back all the land that Russia has stolen since 2014, he will alienate Ukraine's supporters and further divide Ukrainian society.
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Whether Trump wins in November or not, the only hope for retaining Western support and uniting Ukrainians lies in a new approach that starts with leaders being honest about what victory means.
The West must make Zelensky's war goal credible with weapons and security guarantees. As The Economist writes, Putin attacked Ukraine not for its territory, but to prevent it from becoming a prosperous, Western-oriented democracy. Ukraine's partners must force Zelensky to convince his people that this remains the most important prize in this war.
As much as Zelensky wants to drive Russia out of all of Ukraine, including Crimea, he doesn't have the people or the weapons to do it.
If Ukraine can convincingly deny the Russians any prospect of further advance on the battlefield, it will be able to demonstrate the futility of further major offensives. Regardless of whether a formal peace agreement is signed or not, this is the only way to end the fighting and ensure the security upon which Ukraine's prosperity and democracy will ultimately rest.