Russia has announced that it wants to establish a "buffer zone" along the border with Ukraine. At the same time, however, Russian troops are continuing their attacks in the northern part of the Sumy region. The Ukrainian army confirmed that Russia has occupied four border settlements.
Ukrainian units have almost completely withdrawn from the Russian Kursk region, which they had occupied since August last year. Immediately after that, shelling of the border areas intensified. So much so that the authorities ordered the evacuation of 11 settlements.
At the end of May, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that Russia was preparing an offensive against the Sumy region. To this end, Moscow has withdrawn "its strongest and largest military units" in the Kursk region on the Russian side of the border and continues to amass troops on this part of the front. In this area, their number already exceeds 50,000 soldiers, but according to Zelensky, the Russians do not have the capacity to create a "buffer zone" 10 kilometers deep into Ukrainian territory.
Are fears of a new offensive exaggerated?
Military expert Mikhail Samus of the think tank "Network for New Geopolitical Studies" believes that the concerns that have arisen from Vladimir Putin's recent statements about the creation of a buffer zone are "overblown". This is not the first time that Moscow has announced such plans, the expert commented.
"There are no buffer zones here and there never will be. There are repeated attempts by Russia to enter Ukrainian territory. Exactly one year ago, they tried to attack the Kharkiv region, penetrating six to seven kilometers into the area near the village of Vovchansk. A year later, the front is in the same place,” Samus notes.
Fighting to occupy strategic positions
The expert draws attention to the fact that the Ukrainian army has also made progress in the Russian Belgorod and Kursk regions. "The Ukrainian and Russian military are trying to secure more strategic positions in the border areas in order to use them for shelling and operational control of military operations. They are also particularly important for future operations: occupying high positions and using the geographical features of the region provide an advantage," Samus explains.
According to his assessment, Russia currently does not have enough troops in the border area to invade deep into Ukrainian territory. The occupied areas along the border with Sumy region do not yet provide Moscow with a tactical advantage. "They will try to get to higher ground. But the Ukrainian army knows this and can resist it", explains Samus.
Is Yunakovka the target?
According to Ruslan Mikula, co-founder of the non-governmental intelligence organization DeepState UA, the current Russian offensive around Sumy cannot yet be called a "great success", given the large numerical superiority of the Russian troops. At the same time, the expert says that there is a risk that the Russian army will enter deeper into the Sumy region, although the Ukrainian defense forces "already know how to fight against a larger military force".
Mikula's opinion is that the main target of the Russians at the moment is the strategically important village of Yunakovka. Taking it would open the way to a large forested area. "If they enter the forest, it will create a lot of problems. That way they will have a serious advantage", the expert believes.
Danger also for the city center of Sumy
A potential occupation of Yunakovka would also create dangers for the civilian population, Mikula believes. Drone attacks on the city center of Sumy will become possible from these new positions. "This will lead to a situation like the one in Kherson, Nikopol and Konstantinovka, where the Russians used drones to attack buses and other civilian vehicles. So attempts to enter Yunakovka must be prevented", Mikula warns.
Author: Anastasia Shepeleva