The exchange of blows between Israel and Iran has been going on for almost a week. Last night, Iranian missiles hit a hospital in Israel, and in Tehran, a neighborhood where a training base of the Islamic Republic's Revolutionary Guard is located was hit.
At the same time, the question of whether the US will join Israel's offensive against Iran is on the agenda. "Nobody knows what I will do", the American president recently told journalists. US media reports that Donald Trump has approved plans for an attack in principle, but the final decision has not yet been made. And "Bloomberg" claims that if the US does decide to attack Iran jointly with Israel, it will happen over the weekend.
Hypotheses and scenarios
If the United States attacks the Islamic Republic, Tehran will face two options - either return to the negotiating table and refuse to have any uranium enrichment capabilities, or strike back, believes Ryan Crocker, an American diplomat who has served as US ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Syria, Kuwait and Lebanon. In front of "Politico" the expert commented that a potential Iranian retaliation could include blocking the Strait of Hormuz or attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf, as well as on American bases in the region.
If a possible US intervention in the conflict is limited to a strike on the Fordow base, the Iranian regime may not resort to such measures, believes Ian Bremer, chairman of the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.
The Iranian Fordow nuclear complex can only be hit by a US strike, since Israel does not have a bomb capable of destroying this facility, built in a mountain range. "Preserving the uranium enrichment site at Fordow would mean that Iran would continue to have an important element of its nuclear infrastructure, and this certainly means preserving the ability to create a bomb," diplomat Dennis Ross told "Politico". According to him, if the US only strikes Fordow, but not other targets in Iran, further escalation can be avoided.
A major problem is that neither the US nor Israel have explained specifically what their long-term intentions are regarding Iran, notes analyst Robin Wright. Trump says he expects "unconditional surrender", but does not specify what he means - whether Tehran is expected to give up its nuclear program and ballistic missiles, or whether it is about some form of political surrender. Israel does not hide that this may be one of the goals of the operation. Netanyahu himself has called on the Iranians to seize the opportunity to overthrow the ayatollahs' regime.
Regimes like Iran's have long memories
If the United States intervenes in the conflict between Israel and Iran, it will reinforce Tehran's suspicions that Washington is behind Israel's decision to attack the Islamic Republic, says Ray Takei of the Council on Foreign Relations. According to the expert, Iran is currently unable to respond to a serious American strike. However, if the regime is not changed, Tehran will probably resort to well-known old tactics - terrorist attacks and asymmetric conflict, Takei told "Politico". "American embassies, tourists and military bases could become targets for Iranian proxies, while Tehran would claim it had nothing to do with it", the expert said.
According to journalist Arash Azizi of the American publication "The Atlantic", Iran will not engage in such a conflict with the United States. Instead, it will choose the path of diplomacy, since this is the only way the regime can survive. However, there is another option, Azizi believes. "It is possible that Iran will hold out longer, hoping that it will be able to exhaust Trump and Israel. It could leave the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and move towards testing nuclear weapons. "This will be a dangerous path, especially if it ultimately pushes Trump to enter the Middle East more decisively," the expert warns.
Diplomat Ryan Crocker also warns of the danger of the conflict escalating. A possible US attack on Iran could provoke the regime in Tehran to become even more motivated to develop nuclear weapons, the expert commented to "Politico".