The Fiscal Council will issue its official opinion on the macro forecasts next week, announced Lyubomir Datsov, a member of the Fiscal Council, in the program “This Saturday and Sunday“ on bTV.
He indicated that three scenarios are being developed depending on the development of economic processes.
According to the realistic scenario, the expected inflation is slightly higher than the one forecast by the BNB, which is 4 percent, and GDP growth is slightly lower. According to the pessimistic scenario, GDP growth will be around 1 percent for the year, and inflation - over 5 percent, Datsov said.
He also commented on the data on the budget deficit, pointing out that in the first quarter the deficit reached 5.8 percent of GDP on a quarterly basis and noted that such a level has not been reported since 2014.
Commenting on the first quarter of this year, Datsov reported a serious growth in retail consumption - around 7-8 percent, based on the latest data from the national statistics, but stressed that it is contradictory. While the wealthier strata are moving towards more expensive and quality goods, people from the group slightly above the lowest to the middle income level are starting to limit their purchases, the financier said.
Datsov's main advice to future leaders was for "fiscal restraint" and increasing efficiency.
Datsov warned of the risk of stagflation - a combination of rising inflation and declining growth, which negatively affects the labor market.
He expressed disagreement with the compensation for the price of electricity and pointed out that the funds should have been invested in energy efficiency in the long term.