Elon Musk believes that his space company SpaceX could one day be worth many times more than the entire world economy. The ambitious forecast, published by the billionaire on the social network X, has sparked reactions among financial analysts who question the realism of such an assessment.
“This is going to sound completely crazy, but I see the possibility of SpaceX being worth orders of magnitude more than the current world economy“, Musk said on October 8, as quoted by Business Insider and Yahoo Finance.
According to the International Monetary Fund's forecast from April, the value of global economic output in 2026 will reach approximately $126 trillion. If SpaceX becomes at least 100 times more expensive than this amount, its market capitalization would exceed 12 quadrillion dollars.
For comparison, at the time of the statement, the company was valued at about 2.2 trillion dollars. To reach the scale indicated by Musk, its value must increase approximately 5,500 times.
The billionaire later clarified that he did not present such a development as certain. According to him, the presence of a possible path to such a valuation does not mean high confidence that it will actually be achieved, but only that the probability is not zero.
SpaceX's financial results show rapid growth, but also significant expenses. In the second quarter of 2026, the company's revenues reached 7.8 billion dollars, which is an increase of 92% year-on-year. The net loss narrowed to $541 million from about $1 billion a year earlier.
In August, Musk told Wall Street analysts that SpaceX's internal projections projected revenue of $1 trillion by 2030. He said there was a chance that this mark could be reached as early as 2029.
However, the gap between expected revenue and the assumed future valuation remains huge. Even if SpaceX's annual revenue reaches $100 trillion, that amount would represent less than 1% of the minimum market capitalization that Musk's statement implies.
AJ Bell's investment director Russ Mould suggests that the billionaire's vision is related to the future creation of human colonies outside Earth and the use of space resources. However, according to him, such projects will be accompanied by huge costs, technological obstacles and significant risks.
Senior analyst at Swissquote Bank Ipek Özkardeskaya also draws attention to the financial side of such ambitions. According to her, Musk talks about potential opportunities without specifying how much their implementation would cost.
Even more skeptical is Saxo UK investment strategist Neil Wilson, who defines the forecast as a typical demonstration of ambition and public spectacle for Musk. He warns that the company is also exposed to the risks associated with the possible bursting of the artificial intelligence bubble, as well as dependence on debt financing.
According to analysts, SpaceX undoubtedly has potential for growth thanks to space technologies, satellite communications and the development of artificial intelligence. However, its transformation into a company more valuable than the entire global economy remains a hypothetical scenario for which there is currently no convincing economic justification.