Christine Lagarde will leave her post as president of the European Central Bank on February 7, 2027 – around eight months before the end of her eight-year term. Her early departure has opened a succession process in which economic views, national interests and the future distribution of influence in the eurozone are intertwined.
Lagarde has said she wants the freedom to speak “on non-monetary issues” and support causes that are close to her. The European Central Bank confirmed that she will vacate the post on February 7, 2027. The decision gives European Union leaders the opportunity to choose her successor before France’s 2027 presidential election.
Two leading candidates
Among the main contenders are Dutchman Klaas Knot and Spaniard Pablo Hernández de Cos. Knot, 59, was governor of the Dutch central bank from 2011 to 2025. He is associated with a tougher approach to monetary policy because of his positions during the Greek debt crisis and his criticism of the ECB’s negative interest rates.
Hernández de Cos, 55, headed the Bank of Spain between 2018 and 2024. He is regarded as representing a softer approach, but analysts cited by the Financial Times believe that the division between “hawks” and “doves” does not fully describe the flexible positions of the two candidates.
The choice, however, is not a foregone conclusion. Henry Cook, an economist at “MUFG Bank”, predicts “the usual bargaining and behind-the-scenes discussions”, stressing that frontrunners “have not always succeeded”.
The decision involves a complex vote
Eurozone countries were required to put forward nominations, and finance ministers will discuss them on November 9. To be elected ECB president, a candidate must win the support of at least 16 of the 21 eurozone countries. Those countries must represent at least 65% of the currency union’s population.
This rule allows blocking minorities to be formed. Germany, the eurozone’s largest economy, has never had one of its representatives at the helm of the ECB. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has already spoken with both Knot and Hernández de Cos, highlighting the importance of the choice for Berlin.
The change also affects other posts
The choice of president is part of a broader reshuffle in the bank’s leadership. The seat held by German national Isabel Schnabel on the Executive Board is due to become vacant, while the term of chief economist Philip Lane is coming to an end.
French President Emmanuel Macron may push for the chief economist position. This would complicate support for Hernández de Cos, as northern countries are unlikely to accept both key positions being held by representatives of Southern Europe.
If national positions block both frontrunners, negotiations could steer the choice toward a compromise candidate. The final decision will be taken by the European Council following a recommendation and consultations as part of the procedure for appointing the ECB’s leadership.