Poverty in Bulgaria may again reach 2021 levels due to the increase in prices and the decrease in the real purchasing power of income. This was stated by Assoc. Prof. Stoyanka Cherkezova in an interview with “Darik“.
“Risk of poverty and social exclusion in Bulgaria - 31.7% in 2021, 29% in 2025. These are the latest data, we do not have newer ones yet, because 2026 has not ended. My hypothesis is that we will return at least to the levels of 2021, we may even surpass them“, said Cherkezova.
She pointed out that people feel the prices of essential goods the most. “People put the problem of income as their main problem and the problem of prices against the background of rising prices“, said the vice-presidential candidate. According to her, inflation is about 5%, but this does not fully reflect the feeling of rising prices in households.
What do the official data show
Data from the National Statistical Institute show a different picture for 2025. The share of the population at risk of poverty and social exclusion is 29.0%, or 1.8689 million people. The indicator has decreased by 1.3 percentage points compared to 2024, when it was 30.3%. In 2021, it amounted to 31.7%.
The indicator covers people who are at risk of poverty, live in severe material and social deprivation or are in households with low economic activity intensity. The data were collected in a survey covering 10,147 households.
The working poor remain above the 2021 level.
The trend for the working poor over the entire period supports part of Cherkezova's thesis. Their share was 10.0% in 2021, increased to 12.1% in 2024, and decreased to 11.8% in 2025.
The risk is significantly higher for people working part-time – 34.2% in 2025, compared to 10.0% for full-time employees. Among those working with primary or no education, the share of the poor is 47.2%, while among those with higher education it is 4.3%.
The NSI data also show that 27.0% of children under 17 were at risk of poverty in 2025. The situation is the worst for households with two adults and three or more children, where the share reaches 52.3%, as well as for single parents with children - 40.4%.
The latest official figures for 2026 are not yet available. Therefore, the forecast for a new increase in poverty remains an assessment by Stoyanka Cherkezova, based on the increase in prices and pressure on incomes, and not a reported result from national statistics.
Sources: darik.bg