President Rumen Radev is the winner in a rather pessimistic and negative situation. We all have hope, but optimism is in short supply. Delyan Peevski's faction benefits from quick elections, but the result of the Movement will not be good.
This is what political scientist Ruzha Smilova commented before BNR.
"We have already seen at least 3 failed attempts to form a government with the third mandate given to the BSP. It is possible that President Radev will decide to play with greater imagination, giving this mandate this time to ITN. I believe that the president harbors no illusions that the probability of forming a cabinet with this mandate within this National Assembly tends to 0," she commented.
However, according to her, there are clear winners and losers from this systemic crisis in which our political system finds itself:
"The winner in a rather pessimistic and negative situation is President Radev. Being the only winner of such a crisis, presidents, in principle, especially in their second term, begin to seriously toy with the idea of increasing powers, and even changing the model from parliamentary to presidential.
In her words, the deepening of the crisis of our party system only "pours water into the mill of such sentiments for a complete change of our political system".
In an interview for the show "12+4" the political scientist emphasized that Radev will not do the impossible at this stage in order to get out of this crisis. According to her, the only thing he could do for the good of society is to give the mandate to a political player who will give some time before the dissolution of the parliament and thus delay the return of the unfulfilled mandate so that the campaign can start in a more calm situation in the autumn and to conduct a constructive campaign.
Smilova explained how things look from the side of the losers:
"What we should expect from some conscious political players is realizing the depth of the crisis, to have some kind of sobering up and an attempt to get out of this crisis, to pull out the participants in it and the main ones who caused this crisis, given the impasse street we have reached. Unfortunately, we are witnessing a political game with a negative outcome, in which those who win the short-term battles lose the long-term.
She gave the example of DPS, pointing out that there was a collapse of a leading systemic party resulting from the "zealous pursuit of short-term gains". The same is observed with GERD, the political scientist added:
"We have a passionate pursuit of the idea that opponents should be beaten as much as possible, to be shown where their place is. The result - with the 5th election won, GERB is again unable to form a cabinet, which not only hurts GERB, but also the entire political system.
Ruža Smilova is adamant that Delyan Peevski is currently trying to force the holding of elections:
"He is playing for quick elections. This seems understandable given his position at the moment as chairman, who can only lose influence over time from the entrenchment of his opponents in the DPS.
Delyan Peevski's faction mostly wins from quick elections, she expressed her opinion, however, she does not predict a good performance of the Movement in such an early vote. According to her, it is almost certain that the Movement will not be a second parliamentary group.
According to the political scientist, a rapprochement between GERB and PP-DB is not possible within the third mandate. However, it is more realistic for this to happen during talks in the next National Assembly, she added.
And about the relations within the PP-DB coalition, Ruzha Smilova commented: "The accumulation of tension between the coalition partners is visible. I don't know if a coalition agreement is the tool that will allow these tensions to be quelled. However, it is evident that it is necessary to at least develop some format of negotiation and coordination of political positions, which currently does not exist. His absence leads to an increase in tension in the PP-DB coalition.