Washington's reaction with strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities is not surprising and has been prepared for a long time. The US actions are a signal for a new stage in the conflict, in which a turning back can hardly be expected. This was stated by Rumyana Bachvarova - former Bulgarian ambassador to Israel - to NOVA.
“This strike is not accidental. It is the result of long-term behavior and accumulation of military resources. Everything indicates that it was planned carefully, with a clear awareness of the risk and consequences“, Bachvarova commented.
According to her, three possible scenarios are emerging: Iran to withdraw and succumb to pressure, to respond immediately or to wait for a strategic moment for a retaliatory strike. At this stage, Tehran's official position is that the damage is less than the US claims - something that could be part of an attempt to preserve internal stability.
The big question remains the fate of the nuclear fuel - whether it was destroyed, transferred or remains available for possible use. Bachvarova also commented on speculation that the Iranians may have been warned in order to minimize the damage, while at the same time preserving their power and the US administration demonstrating strength to the world community.
Regarding the possible impact of the conflict on the war in Ukraine, she noted: “If Iran is more deeply involved in a direct military conflict, its technical capacity to support Russia may decrease. But for now, this is a matter of possibilities, not intentions“.
Bachvarova also pointed to the geostrategic risk in the region. “Over 130 million people live in the Middle East. There are over 10 US bases there, including the largest in the world. The first consequences of this clash will be felt precisely in this circle, but the repercussions will be global“. she said.
According to her, Iran was clear months ago - if the US joins the military action, strikes on American targets in the region will follow. In this context, what is happening is not just a military incident, but the initial phase of a much larger confrontation.