On the eve of the election campaign, the political scene in our country is getting organized again – parties are putting together lists, looking for messages and trying to mobilize their electorate. Against this background, the caretaker cabinet must guarantee fair elections, but political interpretations and accusations of influence are already piling up around it. What are the election strategies of the parties, the role of the caretaker government, the economic risks facing the country and why some of the political leaders are avoiding clear positions on key issues. Political scientist Kloyan Metodiev speaks to FACTI.
– Mr. Metodiev, we are on the threshold of the election campaign. Each party is sending its own messages. What should we expect?
– We are in a period of organizational lull. They are selecting candidates are running, lists are being filed, documents are being filed... This takes a lot of energy and time. On Wednesday, the numbers will be drawn and the dynamics will change dramatically.
Otherwise, specifically - Borisov looks scared, wearing the leather jacket from his youth, which already looks ridiculous on him, and is talking to a swan. Peevski is sucking up the remnants of the old DPS in places, is making schemes and is fighting to get out of “Magnitsky“ using state resources - we should all pay him, pushing us towards that stupid “Peace Board“. PP–DB have internal problems, they are still explaining themselves about “Petrohan“. Assen Vassilev is obviously having a hard time imposing his leadership. Radev is making mistake after mistake - both in his speech and in the political actions of the pre-election collaboration with GERB. In terms of personnel, it is even offensive to comment on it. Cornelia Ninova is touring the country and sticking to her line against Borisov-Peevski - social and economic issues in the foreground. It is consistent in this space. The two crutches - ITN and BSP - are trying to dress in some new clothes: one pretends to be conservatives, and the other pretends to be liberals, but they have morally crashed after betraying their voters. The nationalists have lost their way, but perhaps they will recover after the blow that the former president dealt them, who deceived their voters.
– We have a caretaker cabinet, but PP–DB seem to be taking over the talking points of this government - we keep hearing how good it is and how it is doing. What specific political decisions and actions are we witnessing?
– This is a gross political mistake on the part of PP–DB. They identified themselves with the caretaker cabinet, became its defenders and speakers. That is, they will also bear all the negatives. And we are talking about a caretaker cabinet. This is not the caretaker cabinet from 1997, it is not the same party system. I see that they are under pressure – some ministers are being exposed for compromising material, they are being hit, but others are comfortable. They should act in principle – not to engage in politics, but to take care of the organization of the elections and only solve current issues.
They did a good job of bringing back Bulgarian tourists from Dubai – we were among the first in the world to organize.
The caretaker Minister of Defense, who is a GERB quota and is publicly accountable to Borisov, tried to drag us into the war against Iran, for which he should have been replaced by Yotova at the drop of a hat. The “Zhelyazkov“ government deployed military aircraft at a civilian airport inside a capital with a population of two million. The measures against fuel prices seem half-baked and unclear to me. They will be given 20 euros per person, given that in Europe price ceilings are being set and excise taxes are being reduced.
– Service cabinet and reshuffles everywhere. Is that how it should be done?
– The service cabinet should only organize fair elections, prevent abuses and solve current tasks. That's all.
We have seen enough of the outrages of Galab Donev and Dimitar Glavchev. Here the issue is a matter of principle – I stand behind the principle.
It seems to me that the shadow of Borisov and Peevski is creeping into certain service ministries, thickening in terms of personnel. In places we have blatant continuity – the regional ministry, the agricultural ministry, the defense ministry, where there is a pure party quota.
Model does not change by imitating it.
And let's not forget that DB was twice a coalition partner of GERB, and with PP – and with DPS– Peevski. They know their teeth.
– In your opinion, a “perfect storm“ is forming, which could become a “fuse“ for parties before the elections. What factors do you think will lead to such a political collapse?
– Undoubtedly, the "perfect storm" is coming, and these are prices, the war in Iran, the social vector. Electricity bills for January and February were outrageously high – without any explanation as to why. I'm sure it's not because of the climate. The price of water is rising a lot in some places. Given that the service in entire regions is tragic – there is no water, and mud flows from people's taps. Oil has risen because of Trump. This is beyond our control, but buffers must be sought – reducing excise duty, reviewing reserves. Natural gas has also skyrocketed since the beginning of the Iranian adventure, and this affects Bulgarian industry – especially food production. It is key to guarantee our food security. All this hits the pockets of Bulgarian citizens. Borrowing is not an option. Since the beginning of the year, 600 million euros have already been taken, and the debts under “Botas“ are piling up every day. For the “Peace Board“ we will have to take out 1 billion dollars. All this creates conditions for social discontent. And it is completely justified. We are not experienced rabbits of oligarchs, monopolies and compradors.
– The lack of experienced personnel in some of the political formations will lead to what? What qualities should the people who will enter the next government have?
– Politics is a craft. The most important for a country. It is learned. It requires responsibility for the entire society, character and development of specific skills – general culture, empathy, emotional intelligence, communication skills, knowledge of institutions, public relations and social systems. Knowledge of history, politics, geopolitics, economics, law, anthropology, PR, marketing... Nobody goes to a car mechanic when they have a toothache. And politics often elects people who have not walked the path, are not prepared and have no clue.
Slavi Trifonov is the emblematic example. A successful musician - people were fooled by his quality, and then a disaster as a politician followed. The two things are fundamentally different.
There are many examples on the lists and in this vote. This is irresponsible towards the voters. We need a balance - experienced people and new people who can develop, invest in them, and build up their personnel. This is the European model. For me, politics is largely a personnel policy. On the one hand, we have the professional component, and on the other - the moral component. Only in their combination do we get a good politician. And thirdly - luck and timing.
– You claim that some political leaders avoid public positions on key topics – for example, energy prices or international conflicts. Why do you think such a strategy is pursued?
– Radev has become a byword for such frivolous behavior – hiding and not saying anything specific. I understand it as a strategy to appeal to the widest possible circle of the electorate in order to attract everyone.
But if we have to be honest, the correct verb in his case is not “attract“, but “deceive“.
He is making some kind of cheap imitation of the Tsar and the early Boyko Borisov. For months he has been lying that he is not forming a party and will not resign as president. For me, this is how he lost intelligent and critically thinking people. I believe that they are the most valuable thing for a society. The rest are so fickle, emotionally unstable and wavering that it is risky to lie to them and play with them for a long time.
– We have been observing a series of protests and political instability in Bulgaria in recent years. How does this change the political culture and the behavior of voters?
– It changes it for the better. The protests brought down the disgraced cabinet “Zhelyazkov“ on an unprecedented scale in Sofia, Plovdiv, Varna, Burgas, Blagoevgrad, Ruse, Haskovo, Gabrovo, Pleven – down to small municipalities. I have been traveling around the country a lot in the last two years and I am observing an interesting social process. Without generalizing, of course. Two large groups are returning. One is students who graduated in the West or in big cities, and the other is pensioners who are returning to our country. The young people bring energy, other cultural models and manners. They are motivated, they want to help. Pensioners who were expelled during the transition and worked in Greece, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Spain, Austria, etc., are returning to their roots. They buy houses, renovate them, return to their hometowns. They have good pensions.
Youth and young pensioners. Both groups have one distinctive feature - they are rebellious.
They have seen other systems. They are independent. Injustice irritates them. They protest. They don't like disorder. This process is positive. It gives us added value as a society. “Rebellious Bulgaria“, of which I am a member, included many such people on its lists for the upcoming elections - both young and old. We must gradually bring them back. A strong state is made of people.
– If you had to formulate one key question that Bulgarian parties should answer before the elections, what would it be?
– With whom can they form a coalition and with whom cannot they after the elections. I am interested in the red lines because very few remained among these 24 formations and their leaders who did not lie to the voters.
Our people have been lied to a lot.
The most valuable parties and leaders are those where words and deeds do not diverge. Who are not bought, subordinated, dependent or obedient and are expertly and politically prepared. People must be able to vote safely.