NATO is beginning discussions on the forces and weapons that allies would need to defend themselves against a possible attack by Russia, as well as on how these efforts would be financed. As Politico reports, these talks will set defense capability goals through 2029, a time frame by which European officials warn Russia could be ready to launch an attack on a NATO member state.
The publication spoke to 15 current and former NATO officials and diplomats to outline five key issues the alliance needs to address in the face of a potential Russian invasion.
- Setting the "level of ambition"
The most critical issue is determining exactly how many troops and military capabilities allies are willing to commit—a concept NATO calls the "level of ambition".
Also, allies must decide how to provide conventional forces and weapons—such as ground units or air assets—along with the contribution of nuclear-armed states such as the United Kingdom and the United States.
- Filling the American "gap"
There are concerns that the United States could withdraw resources that are critical to Europe, such as heavy transport aircraft. Washington's drive to reduce its military presence in Europe will force allies to frantically look for ways to compensate for lost capabilities.
"Until recently, the logic in NATO was this: you calculate what the Alliance needs and if something is missing, the United States simply fills the gap. Now things are different," notes Camille Grand, a NATO representative.
One possible solution is to abandon the requirement for specific types of weapons and instead assign member states specific operational tasks - for example, destroying Russian command posts. Such an approach would provide greater flexibility for European allies that do not have access to American weapons systems, such as Tomahawk cruise missiles.
- Regional Disagreements
Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Alliance's focus shifted eastward and, in the past year, northward toward Greenland. However, some allies would like to see more attention paid to the Alliance's southern and southeastern flanks. Concerns include the presence of Russian mercenaries in Libya, the risk of migration being used as a weapon, increased submarine activity, and drone attacks on vessels in the Black Sea.
- More drones or more tanks?
The dominance of unmanned systems on the front line in Ukraine is likely to spark a debate about how to strike a balance between the development of drone-related capabilities and the continued increase in the stockpiles of traditional military equipment, such as tanks and artillery.
According to Grand, the discussion is also fueled by the difficulties in recruiting personnel that European countries face: "One of the factors pushing everyone towards greater reliance on unmanned systems is the aging population and the resulting shortage of cadres".
In addition, countries must find ways to keep up with Russia's technological development without undermining their own national defense budgets.
Admiral Pierre Vandieux of the French Navy has proposed a solution based on a subscription service model: regular equipment updates that would ensure that weapons systems do not become obsolete.
- Lessons from Ukraine
Most NATO allies recognize that Ukraine contributes to their security thanks to its large, battle-hardened army and its rapid technological development in areas such as air, sea and ground drones, air defense systems, missile weapons and the advanced "Delta" battlefield management system.
In this regard, some countries are calling for closer military-industrial cooperation. At the same time, others remain cautious, pointing out that the war in Ukraine differs significantly from NATO doctrine, which emphasizes fast, maneuverable combat operations, achieving air superiority and delivering high-precision strikes at long distances.
Source: news.bg