"Russian troops are practically in the entire city", says a Ukrainian soldier, quoted by ARD. With his unit, which uses drones, he is fighting in the almost surrounded city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine. "The Russians are moving in small groups, using cover and opening fire on us", the soldier also shared.
He is categorical that the situation in Pokrovsk is very difficult. “Probably the moment to send us reinforcements was missed. Now they are on the way, but a large part of the positions and soldiers could be cut off. The most important thing is that the reinforcements do not arrive too late.“
However, observers fear that this is exactly what could happen. Russian units have been trying to capture the tactically important city for a year. And now the Ukrainian soldiers are threatened with a siege, the German public media writes.
Capturing Pokrovsk will give Russia a big advantage
The loss of the city is only a matter of time, American military analyst Rob Lee, who has just returned from the region, told ARD. “Ukraine has a problem with a shortage of personnel. If Ukraine withdraws in an organized manner without suffering too many losses, the defeat will not be so serious,“ Lee points out. “But if Russia manages to surround a large number of Ukrainian troops, this could lead to demoralization and other problems.“
As the ARD notes, if Russia captures Pokrovsk, this would open the way for a further offensive. The region west of the city consists mainly of agricultural land and is not densely populated. In this situation, large territories could be conquered, observers fear.
The German public media recalls that Putin's priority is the occupation of the entire Donbas. And in this regard, the capture of Pokrovsk would provide Russia with a great advantage, says Rob Lee. “It is easier to concentrate infantry there. There will be more and better cover for soldiers. In addition, tall buildings allow the use of antennas, which significantly increases the range of drones - so they can operate over a wider area.“ And the logistics of the Ukrainians in Donbass in general will be under increased pressure.
Sabotage groups penetrate the city
Rob Lee described Pokrovsk as a “big gray area“ in front of the DW. “It is obvious that Russian sabotage groups penetrate deep into the territory of the city, in the northwestern and northern parts. It is not yet clear to what extent they control this territory, but it is clear that in the last one or two weeks Russia has amassed much more forces in the city“, says the expert. The assumptions are that there are 300 or more Russian military personnel in the city. “And the more their number grows, the easier it will be for Russia to take control of it“, adds the expert.
British military expert Marina Miron emphasizes the problem of logistics. “The supply of Ukrainian troops is actually carried out only by drones - air and ground, because the situation is very dangerous. And if there is no possibility of supplying the troops or evacuating the wounded, it is like a time bomb.“
Ukrainian Army Headquarters denies that the military in Pokrovsk is surrounded
The Ukrainian General Staff officially dismissed concerns that the city is surrounded. “Currently, there is no encirclement or blockade of cities in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration. "None of the units of the Ukrainian defense forces are besieged," said Andrey Kovalev, the press secretary of the General Staff.
Austrian military expert Markus Reisner reminds us that in all such cases since the beginning of the war, Ukrainian troops have managed to avoid encirclement. "In Mariupol alone, Russian troops managed to surround several thousand Ukrainians," he noted to the German television n-tv.
What would the capture of Pokrovsk mean?
If the capture of Pokrovsk is really just a matter of time, what would it mean for the further course of the war? "Pokrovsk is an important city. Russia has not achieved significant successes in key cities, and if it manages to bring Pokrovsk under control, it would be just such a success. "From an informational point of view, it is very important for them to capture the city by the end of the year," says Rob Lee. And from there? "I think that, as before, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk remain the most important and significant parts of the Donetsk region that Ukraine must defend. They are central in terms of management, logistics and holding a large part of the front line."
According to experts, there are two main scenarios for the further development of events if Pokrovsk falls. Russian propaganda and Putin will try to present this as a victory to the Russian population and still agree to negotiate with Ukraine and the West. Or the capture of Pokrovsk will inspire Putin for further aggression not only in Donetsk, but also in the Dnepropetrovsk region.
„Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung“ (FAZ) in turn notes that, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Ukraine is hiding the encirclement of its soldiers. FAZ also quotes a Ukrainian soldier who says that 60 percent of Pokrovsk is under Russian control. The enemy has also invaded neighboring Mirnohrad. “There are houses, blocks of flats and streets that you can hardly walk through without being shot.“
Authors: Danilo Bilek | Rebecca Bart ARD