Weeks of military conflict have deepened Iran's severe economic problems, with the country facing the risk of a serious crisis after the end of hostilities. However, Tehran has so far managed to withstand the confrontation in the Persian Gulf, despite the blockade of the United States of America, which limits the export of energy resources, summarizes "Reuters".
After the ceasefire on April 8, active hostilities have subsided, but the conflict remains in a deadlock between Iran, the United States and Israel. Negotiations for a permanent ceasefire have stalled as Tehran continues to close the Strait of Hormuz and Washington maintains a blockade of Iranian ports in the Gulf.
Despite the damage to its infrastructure and limited oil exports, Iran has significant domestic resources, stable trade with neighboring countries and so far no widespread signs of fiscal collapse. Analysts note that the Iranian leadership is relying on the so-called "resistance economy" - a strategy based on domestic production and land trade.
"The Iranian authorities probably calculated that they can hold out longer than Western analysts expect," commented Sanam Vakil.
However, the economic damage is significant. A double-digit decline in gross domestic product is expected this year. Iran's currency has already lost about 70% of its value in the past year, and has been falling again in recent days, although it remains close to pre-war levels.
Export data show a sharp decline - only about 300,000 barrels of oil a day reach international markets, with more than 1 million barrels loaded on tankers. Analysts believe that the country can maintain the current level for about two more months before it is necessary to limit production.
The authorities in Tehran are also relying on accumulated reserves, including significant amounts of gold, as well as alternative trade routes. For example, Russia is increasing supplies through the Caspian Sea, and trade with neighboring countries such as Turkey, Iraq and Pakistan has so far remained stable.
Nevertheless, economic tensions in the country are very tangible. Businesses are suffering from high prices, disrupted supply chains and limited access to the internet. Retail sales are falling sharply and unemployment is rising.
Against this backdrop, the risk of new mass protests is also growing - especially after heavy clashes in January, when authorities suppressed demonstrations that left thousands dead.
According to experts, to avoid economic catastrophe, Iran will need to reach an agreement with the United States that includes easing sanctions and restoring oil exports and access to foreign exchange reserves. Otherwise, the current resilience may prove temporary.