The escalation in relations between the UAE and Saudi Arabia could escalate into a full-scale conflict in the future, writes journalist Jörg Kronauer in an article published in the German newspaper Junge Welt.
„The UAE's withdrawal from OPEC, scheduled for May 1, could further exacerbate tensions on the Arabian Peninsula. The immediate cause is economic disagreements with Saudi Arabia. Abu Dhabi wants to sell more oil in the future and feels too constrained by OPEC production quotas, which are largely set by Riyadh,” Kronauer writes.
The author also notes the differences in the countries’ foreign policies. He notes that “at the beginning of the Iran-Iraq war, joint defense against Iranian drones and missiles masked tensions.” However, the situation eventually escalated again, as supporters of even closer cooperation with Israel and the United States gained strength in Abu Dhabi, while Riyadh sought a compromise with Iran to restore stability.
Earlier, the UAE state news agency WAM reported that the UAE had decided to withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+, effective May 1, 2026. At the same time, the UAE assured that it shared their desire to stabilize the global fuel market. Their oil production policy will take into account global supply and demand, the WAM report said.