The offensive campaign of the Russian forces at the front is just beginning. The offensive will likely develop according to scenarios from previous years of the war, believes Pavlo Lakiychuk, head of military security programs at the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI“.
“It is not entirely correct to say that the enemy's offensive has failed. Rather, it is just beginning. Based on the gradual accumulation of forces both in the Donetsk direction and in the south, it is now possible to determine and present the main directions of the main strikes determined by the Russian command,“ he noted this on the air of the FREEDOM TV channel.
According to Lakiychuk, the Russians will focus their efforts on attempts to encircle the Ukrainian defense forces in the northwestern Donbas and advance westward in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
At the same time, both the defense forces and the enemy are making progress in certain sections of the front, the expert noted.
„In the Aleksandrovka direction, both the Russians and the Ukrainian defense forces are achieving tactical successes, not only successfully repelling the enemy's offensive, but also continuing to repel it in a number of areas.“
"The tactics of the occupiers have changed somewhat near Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region". Lakiychuk believes that the Russians have probably abandoned the idea of surrounding the entire agglomeration. To implement such a plan, they would have to cross the Oskol River from the north and south.
„Now they have apparently come to the conclusion that a frontal offensive along the left bank of the Oskol is the most realistic. That is, their plans boil down to tactical successes; they are not trying to catch a pie in the sky, but the tension on this section of the front will remain“, the expert continued.
“The enemy will try to stretch the Ukrainian reserves. The occupiers will set fire to the front line as widely as possible,“ believes Lakiychuk.
The expert also noted the growing importance of the Liman direction in the plans of the Russian command.
“This direction towards Slavyansk, in a general perspective, is aimed at creating “northern pincers“. “And the encirclement of our group of forces in northwestern Donbas. Whether they will succeed in achieving the goals set by Gerasimov and his General Staff, or will again fall into disarray, depends largely on the Ukrainian Defense Forces and the ability of our defenders to find resources, reserves and concentrate them for active defense“, concluded Pavlo Lakiychuk.
According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as of 22:00 on April 30, 109 combat clashes with the enemy were registered. The enemy was most active in the Pokrovsk and Konstantinovsk sectors, where Ukrainian defenders repelled a total of 35 attacks.
DeepState co-founder Roman Pogoreli said that the Russians are putting pressure on different sectors of the front, and problems are emerging in some areas. They are conducting the most active assault operations in the Konstantinovka area of Donetsk region. There are also risks in the Kupyansk area of Kharkiv region.
Source: www.unian.net