Russia may seek to deploy ballistic missiles and launchers in Belarus in order to expand the directions of possible strikes against Ukraine, to additionally burden its air defense and to put pressure on Europe. This was stated to UNIAN by Anatoly Khrapchinsky, director of development of a defense enterprise and a reserve officer of the Air Force of Ukraine.
„One of the main critical problems is stretching the direction of the attack. It is one thing when we know that the air attack is coming from the Russian Federation. Here we are already talking about an additional burden on the part of Belarus“, said Khrapchinsky.
According to him, Moscow can use Belarus as a protected territory for Russian launchers. This would increase the number of possible firing positions in Russia, while at the same time making it more difficult to detect and neutralize them. Khrapchinsky pointed out that the maintenance of ballistic missiles would probably be carried out by the Russian military.
Even three launchers would be a problem
The expert emphasized that the exact number of systems that could be deployed would depend on intelligence data and the actions of Russia and Belarus. However, in his opinion, even three launchers would pose a serious threat.
„Even three launchers are already a problem“, said Anatoly Khrapchinsky.He claims that Ukraine is technically capable of destroying ballistic missiles, including on Russian territory, but this requires appropriate weapons and additional assistance from Western partners. An additional complication would be the fact that Belarus has not officially declared direct participation in the war.
According to Khrapchinsky, China is the only country that could influence Alexander Lukashenko not to accept such a deployment due to its strong economic presence in Belarus.
Threat to the northern regions and pressure on Europe
Khrapchinsky assumes that Russia may transfer Iskander missile launchers to Belarus not only with the intention of increasing military capabilities against Ukraine. According to him, such a move may also have a political goal - to intimidate European societies and put pressure on countries that support Kiev.
The location of the systems will determine which parts of Ukraine will be most at risk. If they are deployed in the Gomel region, the north of the country will be threatened first. Khrapchinsky gave an approximate range of 400 to 450 kilometers.
“A ballistic missile is a completely different profile and the means to intercept it are smaller. In any case, the entire territory of Ukraine is under threat“, he said.“
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also said that Russia is putting pressure on the regime of Alexander Lukashenko to deploy other means of air attack, including ballistic weapons. He said that Belarus is already supporting Russian attacks by using repeaters for strike drones. Zelensky urged Minsk not to take any step that would mean more direct involvement in the war.
Sources: unian.net