Support for Ukraine in the US Congress is entering a new period of uncertainty, as many of Kyiv’s most active Republican supporters are expected to leave the legislative body regardless of the outcome of the midterm elections. According to “Politico”, this could weaken the bipartisan coalition that has so far provided political backing for military and financial aid to Ukraine.
On November 3, Americans will elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives and part of the Senate. If the Democrats take control of one or both chambers, they will gain greater opportunities for investigations, budget oversight and pressure on the administration. This will not automatically change President Donald Trump’s policy toward Ukraine, however, as the new Congress will only begin exercising its full powers at the beginning of 2027, while the president retains considerable freedom of action in foreign policy.
Which Positions Could Be Left Undefended
Republican supporters of Ukraine are calling for additional funding, expedited deliveries of air defense equipment and congressional oversight of restrictions on the Starlink service used by Ukrainian forces. Their problem is that, following the expected series of departures from Congress, there may not be enough influential Republicans capable of persuading the White House to support such initiatives.
“Congress could lose the coalition needed to pass legislation that the administration would support,” a Republican House aide quoted by “Politico” warns. This means that even with a more Ukraine-friendly majority in Congress, the adoption of a new package could depend on Trump’s position.
Among the notable changes is Mitch McConnell’s departure from the Senate at the end of the year. The Kentuckian was one of the most consistent Republican supporters of aid to Ukraine and of American leadership in NATO. Senator Lindsey Graham, another of the Republican Party’s most prominent voices in support of Kyiv, also died in July. The loss of two of the most influential advocates further changes the balance within the party.
Europe Also Expects Greater Pressure
European allies of the US fear that a potentially heavy Republican defeat could push Trump toward more aggressive action in foreign policy. Five NATO diplomats warn that the president could increase pressure on the Alliance, limit US participation in joint funding or expand the planned withdrawal of American troops from Europe. The review of the US military presence on the continent is expected to be completed in December.
Washington could link the US military presence in Europe and deliveries to Ukraine to the adoption by European countries of a US-backed peace agreement between Kyiv and Moscow. Oana Lungescu, a former NATO spokesperson and senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, warns that combining the US military position, Ukraine’s future and European security in a single deal with Russia would create serious risks.
The White House rejects assessments that Trump is weakening NATO. Assistant Press Secretary Olivia Wiles says that “Trump has done more for NATO than anyone else,” pointing to the allies’ increased defense spending and efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
After the election, the question will not only be who controls Congress, but whether a sufficiently strong Republican group willing to defend US aid for Ukraine will remain. Even if the Democrats achieve a victory, the future of support for Kyiv will depend on the clash between Congress, the White House and the Republican Party’s changing priorities.
Sources: politico.com, hromadske.ua, newsukraine.rbc.ua