Ukrainian forces are gradually strengthening their positions and are increasingly successfully pushing back Russian troops, but the ground war has turned into an exhausting standoff without the rapid capture of territory. This was stated by Dutch military analyst Patrick Bolder in an interview with „Ukrinform“.
According to him, Russian units are becoming more organized and operating more intelligently. Bolder cited an assessment according to which the Russian army’s losses in October exceeded 54,000 killed and wounded. In the previous month, they had stood at 42,000, while in August and September they were 41,000 and 40,000 respectively. Thus, the total number of Russian casualties during the first ten months of the year reached nearly 400,000 killed and wounded, according to the data he cited.
Ballistic missiles remain a major threat
The military analyst distinguishes between the situation on the ground and in the air. According to him, Ukrainian air defenses are now intercepting fast drones more frequently, with the success rate reaching 80 percent according to some data. Bolder also warns of a new generation of „Shahed“-type unmanned aircraft that could reach speeds of nearly 1,000 kilometers per hour.
He believes that the more frequent downing of fast drones is precisely what prompted Russia to resume the large-scale use of ballistic missiles. „Even when such systems are available, ballistic missiles are difficult to intercept,“ Bolder said.
According to him, Russia is producing more and more such missiles and has probably accumulated a significant stockpile after using them less frequently for a month or a month and a half. He calls on Spain and Greece to provide Ukraine with their available interceptor missiles for Patriot systems, but acknowledges that the decision depends on the countries themselves.
Bolder: Putin would prefer a frozen conflict
The Dutch expert believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not seeking a lasting peace, but rather a frozen conflict. According to Bolder, this would allow Moscow to keep its troops in Ukraine, exert pressure on European countries and resume hostilities at a convenient moment.
He compares the possible model with other frozen conflicts in the post-Soviet space, including Transnistria, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Bolder warns that instability in Europe, upcoming elections and rising populism are creating uncertainty around future support for Ukraine.
No immediate threat to the Baltic states is expected
As long as the war in Ukraine continues, Russia is unlikely to launch a full-scale invasion and occupation of the Baltic states, Bolder believes. He does, however, allow for limited actions to test NATO’s response—for example, a brief incursion, a violation of airspace or an attack on a ship in territorial waters.
According to him, the presence of American, German, Polish, British and Dutch military personnel in the Baltic region has a deterrent effect. If they are withdrawn, Moscow would have an opportunity to exert stronger pressure on Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.
Bolder describes the war as a conflict with an increasingly clear international dimension. He points to stand-off strikes, hybrid warfare, the need for faster decision-making and artificial intelligence as factors that will shape future military campaigns.
Sources: ukrinform.ua