Europe’s accelerated rearmament is coinciding with growing support for far-right parties in France and Germany. According to an analysis by The New York Times, cited by RBC, this creates a political risk for European countries’ plans to increase spending on defence and security.
In 2025, NATO countries committed to directing a total of 5% of their gross domestic product towards defence and security-related investment by 2035. The previous target was 2% of GDP for defence alone. Poland is already allocating more than 4%, while the Baltic states are spending between 3.4% and 4%. The United Kingdom plans to reach 3% by 2030.
France, which allocates around 2% of its GDP to defence, is focusing on strengthening its nuclear deterrent. Germany currently spends between 2% and 3%, but intends to reach by 2029 a level approximately equal to the combined amount France and the United Kingdom spend on defence.
France is the immediate political risk
According to the US newspaper’s analysis, France is the biggest cause for concern, with presidential elections expected in April 2027. Polls cited by The New York Times give Marine Le Pen between 35% and 37% in the first round.
Le Pen has stated that she would end financial assistance to Ukraine. She has also spoken of the possibility of France leaving NATO’s integrated military structure after the end of the war in Ukraine. Such a change would affect both Paris’s policy towards Kyiv and France’s role in European defence.
The victories of „Alternative for Germany“
In Germany, the Alternative for Germany party is also increasing its influence. The party has achieved successes in elections for state parliaments and in September became the strongest political force in the state of Saxony-Anhalt, without winning a majority to govern alone.
AfD takes a critical stance towards the European Union and NATO. Its representatives claim that sanctions against Russia are causing greater damage to Germany than to the Russian economy, and support the resumption of Russian gas supplies. According to the cited analysis, the party’s popularity could peak in the mid-2030s, when Germany’s rearmament will be close to completion.
Signals from Washington and Moscow
On 6 November, US President Donald Trump announced after a meeting with Russian President’s special envoy Kirill Dmitriev that a major security agreement was being prepared. „I can’t tell you exactly what we discussed. I’m just saying that there will be an agreement. It will not concern only Ukraine and could encompass all of Europe,“ Trump said.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Moscow still had no details. He stressed that at a certain stage, discussions on the future security system in Europe and mutual guarantees between Russia and Ukraine would not be possible without the European countries.
Thus, European defence spending is increasing at the same time as the political balance is shifting in several key countries. It is precisely the combination of long-term rearmament, the elections in France and the AfD’s successes in Germany that lies at the centre of the concerns described by The New York Times.
Sources: rbc.ru, apnews.com, amp.dw.com