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Vladimir Putin's new position: First Ukraine capitulates, then we will negotiate peace

Putin's rejection of any ceasefire agreement contradicts the Kremlin's previous efforts to shift the negotiating burden to the West and Ukraine

Jul 6, 2024 11:20 371

Vladimir Putin's new position: First Ukraine capitulates, then we will negotiate peace  - 1

Russian President Vladimir Putin used his meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on July 5 to squarely oppose the proposed ceasefire and expressed his commitment to pursue a "final" an end to the war that would achieve his goal of destroying Ukrainian statehood.

This is warned in the daily analysis of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Putin is demanding both the handover of a significant portion of Ukraine's territory and population to Russian occupation, and the surrender of the Ukrainian army before any negotiations on the final outcome of the war.

Ukrainian counteroffensive operations that liberate operationally significant territory remain the most sensible course of action to reduce Putin's confidence in and commitment to the desired end-state of his war of aggression against Ukraine.

Putin's rejection of any ceasefire deal runs counter to the Kremlin's previous efforts to shift the negotiating burden to the West and Ukraine.

Putin has tried to portray Orbán as an EU representative who can speak for the EU, a claim that EU officials have flatly denied.

Recent opinion polls in Russia show that the Kremlin's information operations are influencing domestic Russian support for the war in Ukraine.

These Russian polls show that Russians who criticize the conduct of the war in Ukraine still support the war out of patriotism and disillusionment.

Many of Russia's "adversaries" critiques of the war that are similar to those of Russian ultranationalist war bloggers, but they lack the ultranationalists' attention to the war and the desire for political change in support of Russia's military goals.

On July 4 and 5, Ukrainian forces carried out successful drone and missile strikes on targets in the Tambov and Rostov regions and the Krasnodar region.

Russian forces have recently advanced near Volchansk, Toretsk and the city of Donetsk.

Representatives of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continue to portray themselves as providing adequate medical care and other support to Russian soldiers who have been fighting in Ukraine, amid ongoing criticism that the Russian military command is sending even wounded soldiers to fight on the front line.