According to the information of the Russian Ministry of Defense, on the night of Thursday, Ukrainian drones again attacked regions along the Ukrainian-Russian border. 14 drones were shot down over Belgorod region, attacks were also repelled over Kursk and Oryol regions. Meanwhile, Russian military bloggers write in “Telegram” that Ukrainian units have reached the city of Suja and the village of Korenevo – information that the Russian authorities leave without comment.
Russian President Putin described the breakthrough of the Ukrainian army across the border as a “large-scale provocation”. According to the Russian General Staff, the number of Ukrainian fighters sent to the Kursk region is up to 1,000 people. Ukraine has not yet officially commented on the reports of the border breach.
Battles in the Kursk region
In the Kursk region, fighting has been going on for the last few days – in the area of Suja and Korenevo, where the Ukrainian units have reached. There are Russian fighters captured, a Russian helicopter was shot down by a drone. The Russian authorities claim that they have “stopped the movement of the enemy” and “control the situation”, but meanwhile there are reports of fighting in the town of Suja, which is ten kilometers from the border. An evacuation is underway in the area, and security at the Kursk NPP, which is 60 km from the Ukrainian border, has been strengthened.
Russian military experts state to DV that the attack of the Ukrainian army on Russian territory will lead to the weakening of the positions of the Russian army on the main front line, because they will have to transfer military units from other places.
The success of the Ukrainian army – failure of Russian intelligence
Independent Russian military expert Yury Fyodorov suggests that a meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation probably discussed the shortcomings in the work of Russian intelligence, which did not track the movement of large Ukrainian units to the border. “It is probably about two brigades, each of which includes about 4,000 people. This is undoubtedly a success for the Ukrainian side.“
In his words, these troops may be enough to create a bridgehead on Russian territory, where there are no serious defensive fortifications and a sufficient amount of troops. “There are about 10-12,000 Russian military in Kursk. They are isolated and are less capable of combat than the forces directly involved in the war,”, says the expert. He suggests that the main purpose of this Ukrainian operation is to distract the Russian army from the main front line.
Ten Russian villages and about 15 km of territory were captured
The same opinion is shared by the independent Russian military expert Yan Matveev, who notes that there may be several hundred Ukrainian soldiers on Russian territory, and the rest are still waiting as a reserve in Ukraine. Matveev suggests that if the Ukrainian command registers successes in the offensive, it can transfer troops from the reserve to the attackers.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian units have captured ten villages and about 15 kilometers of Russian territory, Matveev says, but his information is based only on the reports of pro-Kremlin military correspondents. “In general, we observe a serious information blockade – there are almost no data from either the Ukrainian or the Russian side.“
The expert also says that from a psychological point of view, the occupied Russian territory is a solid argument for the Ukrainian side against the background of the discussion of a possible truce. But from a military point of view, many questions arise, such as whether the Ukrainian units will not spend more forces on this operation than the Russian army. “On the Donetsk front, for example, the Ukrainian army has serious problems.“
A disaster for the Russian authorities
Losing control over part of Russian territory is a catastrophe for the Russian authorities, says Ukrainian military expert Oleg Zhdanov. He notes that since 1991, for the first time, foreign troops control Russian territory. And the Russian command does not have free reserves to transfer to the new combat zone. “Every month in Russia they mobilize or hire 25-30,000 people. But all these people are being used to fill the losses on the main front.“
Zhdanov believes that the Ukrainian leadership can use the situation to form a more sustainable negotiating position if a peace process to settle the military conflict begins. “The political importance of this bridgehead or this territory is much greater than military success.“