The Russians, still in shock from the unexpected Ukrainian invasion of Russian territory, are already threatening revenge. Journalist Mikhail Rostovsky writes for mk.ru that Ukraine will pay a high price for its invasion.
He made an analogy with the sinking of the Kursk submarine in 2000, which happened in the month of August. Again in August, but 2024, the Ukrainian army invaded the Kursk region.
This is the very nature of military conflict. If you are dealing with a strong adversary (no sane person can deny that the Ukrainian armed forces are a strong and highly motivated adversary for Russia), you must be prepared for the fact that from time to time he will make strong and unexpected moves that they surprise. Zelensky has now made a strong move, the author points out.
The genius of military strategy, Carl von Clausewitz, said that “war is the realm of chance”. Zelensky's adviser Mykhailo Podoliak said that official Kiev organized the invasion of the Kursk region to strengthen its negotiating position. An equally important motivation for the Zelenskyi regime is, so to speak, increasing the political monetization of his brand, trying to stop and reverse its creeping devaluation. Everyone loves winners and no one respects losers and losers. Recently, Zelensky is increasingly perceived in his country and in the West as a loser who is only trying to postpone the inevitable.
Sometimes Kiev doesn't even have to do anything special - it just waits, shuts up, watches and hopes, as was the case with PMC Wagner's revolt, which, according to Budanov's statement, he knew about almost six months in advance. Now the question is how Moscow will react.
Putin knows the price of delayed decisions, of refusing - however emotionally difficult and painful - an immediate spontaneous reaction. Two examples from the recent past showing how the Russian president's brain works in such situations. Let us remember what a heavy emotional atmosphere prevailed in Moscow after the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kherson and after the (Prigozhin) uprising of June last year. The Commander-in-Chief cannot let what happened go without a worthy response. And simply pushing the Ukrainian armed forces out of the Kursk region can only be part of such a worthy response.