By striking bombers in the heart of Russia with ordinary drones on Sunday, Ukraine has accomplished a feat that has become a serious blow to Moscow and could change the way military operations are conducted, experts believe, writes BTA, citing AFP.
What is the impact on the Russian air force?
Kiev claims that 41 aircraft have been destroyed, mainly Tu-95 and Tu-22 long-range strategic bombers - Soviet-era aircraft used to launch cruise missiles against Ukraine.
The potential loss of a third of Russia's bomber fleet, as Kiev claims, is “a serious blow to Russia's offensive capabilities, but it is not the end of this type of bombing“, says Joan Michel of the Institute for Strategy and Defense Studies at the University of Lyon-3.
In his words, “the main impact could appear in a few weeks in the form of a reduction in the number of takeoffs of the rest of the air fleet“.
“It will take Russia a long time to compensate for these losses“ of aircraft capable of launching missiles with nuclear warheads, says Maxim Starshak, an expert on Russian nuclear policy.
Can Russia defend its bases?
The strike drones launched from trucks in the immediate vicinity of the bases, some of which are located more than 4,000 km from Ukraine, hit aircraft left in the open, without visible protection.
If these aircraft had been located in hangars, the damage would have been much less.
According to Maxim Starshak, “the protection of military airfields in Russia does not meet security requirements: it is possible to approach the airfield unnoticed and carry out a quick attack that leaves neither time nor means of protection“.
After the Russian security services failed to prevent the attack, and the anti-aircraft defense is not able to stop it, operation “Spiderweb“ “shows that Russia does not think it is in a state of war and that to some extent its strategic depth works against it“, says independent French expert Stéphane Audran on the social network “Ex“.
“Usually the vastness of Russian territory is an advantage, you can hide your bombers thousands of kilometers away, where they would be safe“, points out Yoann Michel. But the Ukrainian attack “means you have to monitor thousands of square kilometers, and that’s simply impossible,” just like monitoring the millions of trucks that pass through Russia, he says.
Even if Russia deploys expensive jamming devices, surface-to-air missiles and anti-drone devices at its air bases, there is no guarantee that such an operation cannot be repeated.
“The range of potential targets is unlimited: refineries, factories, military bases, airports, ballistic missile silos and so on,” says Michael Shurkin, an associate expert at Britain’s Royal Institute for Defence and Security Studies.
What message does the attack send?
After the destruction of the Russian cruiser “Moskva” and the killing of Russian generals, the operation shows "how vulnerable Russia is to unconventional Ukrainian attacks," says John Herbst, a former U.S. ambassador to Kiev.
It represents "a powerful counterargument to the leitmotif that the war inevitably goes in Moscow's favor," he writes for the Atlantic Council think tank.
Ukraine can expect a retaliatory strike from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who wants to wash away the shame, Timothy Garton Ash, a leading Russia expert, predicted in his blog.
The expert sees the operation as "a huge PR victory for Ukraine that will help build support both domestically and internationally," at a time when military aid remains crucial to Kiev.
A new way to conduct war?
Details of Operation Spiderweb are still limited. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that each of the 117 FPV drones used had a pilot.
In the words of Michael Shurkin, “Ukraine has done something that should terrify armies around the world“: to launch a cheap deep strike, “using means that few armies, if any, are capable of countering“.
“This will give food for thought to many people“, says a French arms manufacturer on condition of anonymity, according to whom these “new means require a complete rethinking of defense systems, the way they are produced, the doctrine“. “This opens up areas that we have not even imagined“, he adds.
"For such a complex operation, we wouldn't be wrong to assume that the Ukrainians had anticipated all possible scenarios and used artificial intelligence algorithms to recognize aircraft or provide guidance in the event of drone jamming," he added.