In March, military historian Sönke Neitzel warned that the summer, i.e. the one that is just ending, could be the last peaceful one. However, as the expert now assures journalist Christian Sievers of the German public broadcaster ZDF - his words were not intended to create panic, but to mobilize politicians.
In an interview with ZDF, he stressed that today would not be a "relief". "I think we have three very critical years ahead of us", he says, but he emphasizes that he views the situation a little more optimistically.
"We have seen positive signals"
"In recent months, we have also seen positive signals - that we have made progress. We have reached the 3.5 percent requirement (share of defense spending of GDP - ed.), NATO still exists." And US President Donald Trump has not abandoned his commitments in Europe.
"We must always bear in mind that things can happen that we cannot imagine", warns Naitzel in the interview, adding: "As before, so today I believe that a war with Russia could happen faster than some can imagine".
There is too much talk in Germany
According to the military historian, politicians in Germany are aware of the existing danger, but the government "has never taken action". "Good" examples of this are the planned conscription, the reform of the Ministry of Defense or the Bundeswehr.
"We Germans talk too much. We talk about an elephant, and a mouse is born." The expert believes that this is the main problem of German democracy at the moment, as well as of security policy. For him, this is definitely a cause for concern: "I would like to hope that the cabinet will do more than what we have seen in recent weeks".
Trump's role in peace efforts in Ukraine
Despite the failure of Donald Trump's efforts to date for peace in Ukraine, military historian Naitzel assesses the role of the American president mostly positively. Because it was only thanks to pressure from Donald Trump that Russian President Putin agreed to talks. The Europeans were unable to convince him - with the exception of threats of greater sanctions from the Community, "nothing big" happened.
"It was only the power of the United States that led to this small step in Alaska at all." Therefore, it would be good if the Europeans could also "keep the US on the team". Naitzel reminds us: "Donald Trump is still able to roll his eyes and say - get out of my head. Thank God, we haven't gotten there yet".
At the same time, the expert admits that the results so far are not satisfactory. "We see that Donald Trump is also unable to wave a magic wand to bring peace to Ukraine, that the power of the US is also limited and that Russia has very strong supporters." In response to ZDF's question whether it was naive to even believe that a meeting between Putin and Zelensky could take place or that peace could be established, Naitzel says: "No, it was not naive. We must have hope and use all possible paths to achieve peace."
"We all want peace in Ukraine, which will only happen if the US continues to put pressure on Russia," emphasizes military historian Sönke Neitzel.